Objective: Rates of some psychological disorders are higher among enlisted U.S. military personnel than socio-demographically matched civilians. Indirect evidence suggests some internalizing and externalizing psychological problems among enlistees onset prior to enlistment. However, the consistency and strength of the associations between pre-enlistment psychological problems and enlistment over time is unknown. We address this uncertainty by examining whether internalizing and externalizing problems in high school predicted subsequent military enlistment using a large cohort-sequential panel study.

Method: The Monitoring the Future study administered baseline surveys from 1989–2014 and biennial follow-up surveys two and four years later to national samples of high-school seniors (N = 20,823). Validated self-report scales assessed internalizing (depression, low self-esteem) and externalizing (risk-taking, school misbehavior, conduct disorder, interpersonal violence, alcohol, and drug use) problems in each survey. Follow-up surveys assessed military enlistment. Logistic regression models were used to estimate associations of problems scales with subsequent enlistment.

Results: School misbehavior in 12^th grade, and risk-taking in 12^th grade and two years after graduation were associated with significantly elevated odds of enlistment at follow-up. Although modest, these associations were linear and invariant across respondent sex and baseline survey year.

Conclusions: School misbehavior and risk-taking predicted subsequent enlistment and there was no evidence of historical changes in these associations over the course of 25 years; these pre-enlistment psychological problems do not fully explain the high rates of psychological disorders among enlisted military personnel. Further research is needed to determine whether these predictors are associated with negative outcomes during or after military service.

目标：美国现役军人中某些心理障碍的发生率高于社会人口统计匹配的平民。间接证据表明，应征者在入伍前就出现了一些内在和外在的心理问题。然而，随着时间的推移，入伍前的心理问题与入伍之间的关联的一致性和强度尚不清楚。我们通过一项大型队列连续小组研究来检验高中时期的内化和外化问题是否可以预测随后的入伍，从而解决这种不确定性。

方法：“监测未来”研究对全国高中生样本（N = 20,823）进行了 1989 年至 2014 年的基线调查以及两年和四年后的每两年一次的跟踪调查。经过验证的自我报告量表评估了每项调查中的内化（抑郁、自卑）和外化（冒险、学校不当行为、行为障碍、人际暴力、酗酒和吸毒）问题。后续调查评估了入伍情况。使用逻辑回归模型来估计问题规模与后续入伍的关联。

结果：12^年级的学校不当行为以及 12^年级和毕业后两年的冒险行为与随访时入伍的几率显着升高相关。尽管幅度不大，但这些关联在受访者性别和基线调查年份之间是线性且不变的。

结论：学校的不当行为和冒险行为预示着随后的入伍，并且没有证据表明这些协会在 25 年的时间里发生了历史性变化；这些入伍前的心理问题并不能完全解释入伍军人心理障碍的高发生率。需要进一步的研究来确定这些预测因素是否与服兵役期间或服兵役后的负面结果相关。