In southern African waters, information about species distribution and habitat preferences of many cetacean species is limited, despite the recent economic growth that may affect them. We determined the relative importance of eight environmental variables (bathymetry, distance to shore, slope, chlorophyll-a, salinity, eastwards sea water velocity, northwards sea water velocity and sea surface temperature) as drivers of seasonal habitat preferences of Bryde’s whales (Balaenoptera brydei), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae), southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) and sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus). Using presence only data from multiple sources, we constructed predictive species distribution models (SDMs) consisting of ensembles of seven algorithms for these species during both summer and winter. Predicted distribution for all cetaceans was high in southern Africa and, in particular, within the South African Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Predictive models indicated a more pronounced seasonal variation for humpback, sperm and southern right whales than for Bryde’s whales. Southern right whales occurred closer to shore during winter, humpback whales were more likely to occur along the east coast in winter and the west coast in summer, and sperm whales were more concentrated off the shelf in winter. Our study shows that ensemble models using historical, incidental and scientific data, in conjunction with modern environmental variables, can provide baseline knowledge on important environmental drivers of cetacean distribution for conservation purposes. Results of this study can further be used to help develop marine spatial plans and identify important marine mammal areas.

中文翻译：

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非洲南部地区布氏鲸、座头鲸、南露脊鲸和抹香鲸的物种分布模型，为它们在经济扩张中的保护提供信息

在南部非洲水域，尽管最近的经济增长可能会影响它们，但关于许多鲸类物种的物种分布和栖息地偏好的信息是有限的。我们确定了八个环境变量（水深测量、到海岸的距离、坡度、叶绿素 a、盐度、向东海水速度、向北海水速度和海面温度）作为布氏鲸（Balaenoptera brydei）季节性栖息地偏好的驱动因素的相对重要性)、座头鲸 (Megaptera novaeangliae)、南露脊鲸 (Eubalaena australis) 和抹香鲸 (Physeter macrocephalus)。我们仅使用来自多个来源的存在数据，在夏季和冬季为这些物种构建了由七种算法的集合组成的预测物种分布模型 (SDM)。在南部非洲，尤其是在南非专属经济区 (EEZ) 内，所有鲸类动物的预测分布都很高。预测模型表明，与布氏鲸相比，座头鲸、抹香鲸和南露脊鲸的季节性变化更为明显。南露脊鲸冬季更靠近岸边出现，座头鲸冬季更容易出现在东海岸，夏季更可能出现在西海岸，而抹香鲸则更集中在冬季离岸。我们的研究表明，使用历史、偶然和科学数据以及现代环境变量的集合模型可以为保护目的提供有关鲸类分布的重要环境驱动因素的基线知识。