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Understanding the Epidemic Course in Order to Improve Epidemic Forecasting
GeoHealth ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-21 , DOI: 10.1029/2020gh000303
Peng Jia 1, 2
Affiliation  

The epidemic course of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been differently divided according to its transmission pattern and the infection and mortality status. Unfortunately, such efforts for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) have been lacking. Does every epidemic have a unique epidemic course? Can we coordinate two arbitrary courses into an integrated course, which could better reflect a common real‐world progression pattern of the epidemics? To what degree can such arbitrary divisions help predict future trends of the COVID‐19 pandemic and future epidemics? Spatial lifecourse epidemiology provides a new perspective to understand the course of epidemics, especially pandemics, and a new toolkit to predict the course of future epidemics on the basis of big data. In the present data‐driven era, data should be integrated to inform us how the epidemic is transmitting at the present moment, how it will transmit at the next moment, and which interventions would be most cost‐effective to curb the epidemic. Both national and international legislations are needed to facilitate the integration of relevant policies of data sharing and confidentiality protection into the current pandemic preparedness guidelines.

中文翻译:

了解流行病历程以改善流行病预测

严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)的流行过程已根据其传播方式以及感染和死亡状况进行了不同划分。不幸的是,一直缺乏针对2019年冠状病毒疾病(COVID-19)的此类努力。每个流行病都有独特的流行病过程吗?我们是否可以将两个任意课程协调为一个综合课程,以更好地反映流行病在现实世界中的共同进展模式?这种任意划分可以在多大程度上帮助预测COVID-19大流行和未来流行的未来趋势?空间生命过程流行病学为了解流行病尤其是大流行病的流行病学提供了新的视角,并为基于大数据预测未来流行病学流行病学提供了新的工具包。在目前的数据驱动时代,数据应该整合起来,以告知我们当前流行病的传播方式,下一刻的传播方式以及遏制流行病的最经济有效的干预措施。需要国家和国际立法,以促进将数据共享和机密保护的相关政策纳入当前的大流行防范指南。
更新日期:2020-10-04
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