Many jurisdictions implemented intensive social distancing to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The challenge now is to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic without overburdening economic and social activities. An agent-based model simulated the population of King County, Washington. SARS-CoV-2 transmission probabilities were estimated by fitting simulated to observed hospital admissions. Interventions considered included encouraging telecommuting, reducing contacts to high-risk persons, and reductions to contacts outside of the home, among others. Removing all existing interventions would result in nearly 42,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations between June 2020 and January 2021, with peak hospital occupancy exceeding available beds 6-fold. Combining interventions is predicted to reduce total hospitalizations by 48% (95% CI, 47–49%), with peak COVID-19 hospital occupancy of 70% of total beds. Targeted school closures can further reduce the peak occupancy. Combining low-impact interventions may mitigate the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, keeping hospital burden within the capacity of the healthcare system.

许多辖区实施了密集的社会隔离，以抑制SARS-CoV-2传播。现在的挑战是在不增加经济和社会活动负担的情况下减轻持续的COVID-19流行病。基于代理的模型模拟了华盛顿金县的人口。SARS-CoV-2传播概率是通过模拟拟合观察到的住院人数来估算的。所考虑的干预措施包括鼓励远程办公，减少与高危人群的联系以及减少与家庭以外的联系等。取消所有现有干预措施，将导致2020年6月至2021年1月之间将近42,000例COVID-19住院，住院高峰期超过可提供的床位6倍。预计联合采取干预措施可使住院总人数减少48％（95％CI，47-49％），COVID-19医院高峰期的病床占床位总数的70％。有针对性的停课可以进一步减少高峰时段的学生人数。结合使用影响较小的干预措施可以减轻COVID-19流行病的进程，使医院负担保持在医疗保健系统的能力范围内。