Abstract This paper examines temporal variation in the demand for cycling to understand how environmental conditions may promote or hinder active travel. The role of environmental conditions is considered in terms of the prevailing weather as well as the concentration levelof local air pollutants. Using data derived from the London Bicycle Sharing Scheme, a set of autoregressive distributed lag models are specified to explore these relationships. The models distinguish casual cyclists from regular cyclists to allow the analysis to consider the demand profiles of these two market segments separately rather than jointly. The analysis makes use of an open science approach, with the data inspected, the models applied, and the results derived being made freely available to interested parties through an online repository. The results of the models indicate that the demand of casual cyclists is more strongly linked to concurrent weather condition as compared to the demand of regular cyclists, though regular cyclists seem to be more inclined to delay trips to avoid inclement weather. The associations between cycling demand and air quality levels is mixed, with high concentrations of ozone linked with lower levels of demand from regular cyclists while high concentrations of particulate matter 10 are positively related to both regular and casual cycling demand. The findings of this paper could provide benefits to bicycle sharing system managers such as in planning the schedule of maintenance work as well as highlighting the need to inform cyclists about the actions they can take to reduce their exposure to local air pollutants.

中文翻译：

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共享单车的需求：检查天气状况、空气质量水平以及普通和临时用户的骑行需求之间的联系

摘要 本文研究了骑自行车需求的时间变化，以了解环境条件如何促进或阻碍主动出行。环境条件的作用是根据当时的天气以及当地空气污染物的浓度水平来考虑的。使用源自伦敦自行车共享计划的数据，指定了一组自回归分布式滞后模型来探索这些关系。这些模型将休闲骑车者与普通骑车者区分开来，以便分析可以分别而不是联合考虑这两个细分市场的需求概况。该分析使用开放科学方法，检查数据、应用模型，以及通过在线存储库免费提供给感兴趣的各方的结果。模型的结果表明，与普通自行车手的需求相比，休闲自行车手的需求与同时发生的天气状况的联系更紧密，尽管普通自行车手似乎更倾向于推迟出行以避免恶劣天气。骑行需求与空气质量水平之间的关联是混合的，高浓度的臭氧与普通骑行者的需求水平较低有关，而高浓度的颗粒物 10 与常规和休闲骑行需求呈正相关。本文的研究结果可为自行车共享系统管理人员带来好处，例如在规划维护工作时间表方面以及强调需要告知骑自行车者他们可以采取哪些措施来减少他们对当地空气污染物的暴露。