Uncertainty pertaining to multiple parameters is a critical issue in designing complex systems. Whether or not to acquire more information to reduce uncertainty, and how to acquire information are the meta-level decisions to be made. Key challenges in making such decisions are that there are multiple information sources to choose from, and the cost of information as well as its effects on the overall design utility are different. To address these challenges, a performance-based stepwise information acquisition method is proposed. In the proposed method, the utility-based compromise Decision Support Problem construct is used to formulate design decisions to maximize the overall utility. For meta-level decisions, a performance index is developed for selecting the most appropriate information in each acquisition trial. The index is an integration of the improvement potential of the overall utility, the sensitivity of each ranged parameter, and the cost of the acquired information. Advantages of this proposed method are: 1) sensitivity-efficiency ensures that acquired information is invested on the critical parameters which avoids ineffective information acquisition; 2) cost-efficiency ensures that every acquisition is cost-efficient which avoids budget overruns. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated using the design of a hot rod rolling process. It is shown in the results that the performance-based method leads to an 8-45% larger drop of improvement potential compared to the random method.

与多个参数有关的不确定性是设计复杂系统的关键问题。是否获取更多信息以减少不确定性以及如何获取信息是要进行的元级决策。做出此类决策的关键挑战是有多种信息来源可供选择，信息的成本及其对整体设计实用程序的影响是不同的。为了解决这些挑战，提出了一种基于性能的逐步信息获取方法。在所提出的方法中，基于效用的折衷决策支持问题构造用于制定设计决策，以最大化整体效用。对于元级决策，将开发一个性能指标，以在每次购置试验中选择最合适的信息。该指数综合了整体效用的提高潜力，每个远程参数的敏感性以及所获取信息的成本。该方法的优点是：1）灵敏度-效率确保了将获取的信息投入到关键参数上，避免了无效的信息获取。2）成本效率确保每次收购都具有成本效益，从而避免了预算超支。通过热棒轧制工艺的设计证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明，与随机方法相比，基于性能的方法导致改进潜力的下降幅度为8-45％。该方法的优点是：1）灵敏度-效率确保了将获取的信息投入到关键参数上，避免了无效的信息获取。2）成本效率确保每次收购都具有成本效益，从而避免了预算超支。通过热棒轧制工艺的设计证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明，与随机方法相比，基于性能的方法导致改进潜力的下降幅度为8-45％。该方法的优点是：1）灵敏度-效率确保了将获取的信息投入到关键参数上，避免了无效的信息获取。2）成本效率确保每次收购都具有成本效益，从而避免了预算超支。通过热棒轧制工艺的设计证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明，与随机方法相比，基于性能的方法导致改进潜力的下降幅度为8-45％。通过热棒轧制工艺的设计证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明，与随机方法相比，基于性能的方法导致改进潜力的下降幅度为8-45％。通过热棒轧制工艺的设计证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明，与随机方法相比，基于性能的方法导致改进潜力的下降幅度为8-45％。