Abstract Electricity consumption plays a significant role in increasing the share of total energy consumption worldwide and has a close association with the economy. This research analyzes the factors in two ways. First, this study estimates the electricity consumption in Pakistan during 1989–2018 using Index Decomposition Analysis between share of electricity consumption, economic development, energy intensity, per capita economy, and population. Second, an appropriate decoupling analysis method is taken to evaluate the relationship between related variables and the process of sustainable growth. These analyses are based on both sectorial and national levels. The outcomes show that the economic structure sector effect was the major driving factor growing total electricity consumption in Pakistan, and energy intensity occurred with positive fluctuations during 1989–2018. The agriculture, industrial, and domestic sectors were the top three sectors that increased electricity consumption. The effects of electricity variations caused by GDP growth and showed seven decoupling states during the whole period. Finally, in recent years, the agriculture sector has a weak decoupling, while energy-intensive sectors had an expensive decoupling and transferred to a weak decoupling over the future period. Consequently, electricity production, energy policies, and energy management need to be better integrated with economic planning exercises.

中文翻译：

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巴基斯坦电力消费指数分解解耦分析

摘要 电力消费在提高全球能源消费总量中的比重中扮演着重要角色，并且与经济有着密切的联系。本研究从两个方面分析了这些因素。首先，本研究使用电力消费份额、经济发展、能源强度、人均经济和人口之间的指数分解分析估计了 ​​1989-2018 年巴基斯坦的电力消费。其次，采用适当的脱钩分析方法评价相关变量与可​​持续增长过程的关系。这些分析基于部门和国家层面。结果表明，经济结构部门效应是巴基斯坦电力消费总量增长的主要驱动因素，1989-2018 年能源强度呈正波动。农业、工业和家庭部门是电力消耗增加的前三个部门。GDP增长引起的电力变化的影响，在整个时期呈现出七个脱钩状态。最后，近年来，农业部门脱钩较弱，而能源密集型部门脱钩代价高昂，并在未来一段时间内转为弱脱钩。因此，电力生产、能源政策和能源管理需要更好地与经济规划活动相结合。GDP增长引起的电力变化的影响，在整个时期呈现出七个脱钩状态。最后，近年来，农业部门脱钩较弱，而能源密集型部门脱钩代价高昂，并在未来一段时间内转为弱脱钩。因此，电力生产、能源政策和能源管理需要更好地与经济规划活动相结合。GDP增长引起的电力变化的影响，在整个时期呈现出七个脱钩状态。最后，近年来，农业部门脱钩较弱，而能源密集型部门脱钩代价高昂，并在未来一段时间内转为弱脱钩。因此，电力生产、能源政策和能源管理需要更好地与经济规划活动相结合。