Marine organisms are currently experiencing an unprecedented rate of climatic warming, which affects their biogeography and threatens marine ecosystem integrity. To understand how benthic species will respond to ongoing seawater warming, we assessed the relative importance of processes acting at different scales using an individual-based modelling approach. Our model integrates: (1) at the individual scale, interactions between the environment, metabolism and ontogenic transitions; (2) at the habitat scale, competition for space at settlement and mortality; and (3) at the regional scale, larval dispersal and connectivity between habitats. We focused on a coastal area in the North-East Atlantic that has experienced a significant seawater warming trend over recent decades. We built and ran a population dynamics model for the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) in this area, which is a known biogeographic boundary zone. We then compared the response for a reference scenario and a RCP8.5 temperature projection for 2100. We found that (1) increase in seawater temperature would result in a decrease in average biomass associated with a change in recruitment phenology; (2) response to seawater warming is not spatially homogeneous, showing the importance of processes at the habitat scale; (3) connectivity clearly limits the consequences of warming compared with other regulation processes; and (4) larval supply does not seem to be a limiting factor regulating population biomass. The use of such generic models would therefore be very valuable for guiding and optimizing research efforts and supporting the implementation of management and conservation measures.

中文翻译：

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多尺度相互作用过程调节底栖物种对全球变暖的种群反应

海洋生物目前正在经历前所未有的气候变暖，这影响了它们的生物地理并威胁到海洋生态系统的完整性。为了了解底栖物种将如何应对持续的海水变暖，我们使用基于个体的建模方法评估了在不同尺度上作用的过程的相对重要性。我们的模型整合了：（1）在个体尺度上，环境、新陈代谢和个体发生转变之间的相互作用；(2) 在栖息地尺度上，在定居和死亡时争夺空间；(3) 在区域尺度上，幼虫的扩散和栖息地之间的连通性。我们专注于近几十年来经历了显着海水变暖趋势的东北大西洋沿海地区。我们为该地区的蓝贻贝 (Mytilus edulis) 建立并运行了种群动态模型，该地区是已知的生物地理边界区。然后，我们比较了参考情景和 2100 年 RCP8.5 温度预测的响应。我们发现 (1) 海水温度的增加会导致与补充物候变化相关的平均生物量减少；(2) 对海水变暖的响应在空间上不均匀，显示了栖息地尺度过程的重要性；(3) 与其他调节过程相比，连通性明显限制了变暖的后果；(4) 幼虫供应似乎不是调节种群生物量的限制因素。