Key message

Extreme growth reaction analysis shows that larches in the Sudetes are more vulnerable to climate changes, but negative extreme responses will also be observed in the Carpathians in the near future.

Abstract

Pointer year analysis provides information on extreme tree-ring growth reactions, which can significantly improve the interpretation of tree growth response to climate. Similarities and differences in extreme growth responses of larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the Carpathians and the Sudetes (Polish parts) were studied. To this purpose, a pointer year analysis was performed. Regions with similar extreme growth response patterns to climatic conditions were distinguished. The spatial variability of extreme growth anomalies and the distribution of the determined widespread pointer years and their possible climatic forcing were analyzed. A coincidence of the positive pointer years observed in the Sudetes and lower Carpathians with wet and cold summers (especially during the previous year) was observed. Most of the subregional negative pointer years in the Sudetes are related to droughts whereas in the Carpathians this relation was not observed. Comparison of the extreme growth reaction of larch in both mountain regions suggest that larches in the Sudetes are more vulnerable to climate changes as the negative pointer years observed in the Sudetes are usually associated with droughts that are likely to intensify in the future. Similarities in the drivers of extreme responses of larch in both regions and predicted changes in climatic conditions suggest that negative extreme responses will also be observed in the Carpathians in the near future. The highest parts of the Carpathians (the Tatra Mountains) should be treated separately as both positive and negative pointer years observed there are temperature related. The obtained results suggest that the growth of larch stands in both regions will be negatively affected by predicted climate changes.

中文翻译：

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波兰苏德特人和喀尔巴阡人的落叶松（落叶松落叶松）的极端生长反应：空间分布和气候影响

关键信息

极端增长反应分析表明，苏德特人的水更容易受到气候变化的影响，但不久的将来，喀尔巴阡山脉也会出现负面的极端反应。

抽象

指针年分析提供了有关极端树木年轮生长反应的信息，可以极大地改善树木对气候变化反应的解释。落叶松（Larix decidua）极端生长反应的异同Mill。）来自喀尔巴阡山脉和Sudetes（波兰地区）。为此，进行了指针年份分析。区分了对气候条件具有相似的极端增长响应模式的区域。分析了极端增长异常的空间变异性以及确定的广泛指针年的分布及其可能的气候强迫。观察到在苏德特人和喀尔巴阡山脉中低海拔夏季与夏季湿冷（特别是前一年）相吻合的正指针年。Sudetes中的大多数次区域负指针年份都与干旱有关，而在喀尔巴阡山脉中则没有这种关系。比较两个山区落叶松的极端生长反应，表明苏德特人的水ches更易受到气候变化的影响，因为在苏德特人中观察到的负指针年通常与将来可能加剧的干旱有关。两个地区落叶松极端反应的驱动因素和气候条件的预测变化相似，这表明在不久的将来喀尔巴阡山脉还将观察到负面的极端反应。喀尔巴阡山脉（塔特拉山）的最高部分应分别处理，因为观察到的正负指针年份与温度有关。获得的结果表明，两个地区的落叶松林分的生长将受到预测的气候变化的不利影响。