Flooding of the Adriatic coastline is predominantly caused by storm surges induced by winds from the south-eastern sector. This phenomenon in Venice is known as acqua alta. We present a study of wind fields favouring storm-surge setups in the Adriatic, including their characteristics in the present climate and their expected characteristics in future scenarios. Analysis is based on (i) measured sea levels in Venice and Bakar (1984–2014), (ii) near-surface wind from ERA5 reanalysis, and (iii) simulations of wind fields with three regional climate models (ALADIN52, RCA4, and RegCM4) forced with several global models (CNRM-CM, MPI-ESM-MR/LR, HadGEM2-ES, EC-EARTH, and IPSL-CM5). For future climates, we considered two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) with respect to the historical 1971–2000 period. It was found that the probability that the frequency, intensity, annual cycle, and spatial structure of the wind inducing the Adriatic storm surges will change in future climates is small. The result is robust and consistent according to all considered criteria—it does not depend on the analysed regional climate models, boundary conditions, climate scenarios, or future time interval.

亚得里亚海海岸线的洪水主要是由东南地区的风引起的风暴潮引起的。威尼斯的这种现象被称为acqua alta。我们对有利于亚得里亚海风暴潮设置的风场进行了研究，包括其在当前气候下的特征以及在未来情况下的预期特征。分析基于（i）在威尼斯和巴卡尔（1984-2014）测得的海平面，（ii）通过ERA5重新分析得到的近地表风，以及（iii）使用三种区域气候模型（ALADIN52，RCA4和RegCM4）强制使用几种全局模型（CNRM-CM，MPI-ESM-MR / LR，HadGEM2-ES，EC-EARTH和IPSL-CM5）。对于未来的气候，我们考虑了1971-2000年历史时期的两种情况（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）和两个未来时期（2041-2070和2071-2100）。发现频率，强度，年周期，而引起亚得里亚海风暴潮的风的空间结构将改变，未来的气候很小。根据所有考虑的标准，结果都是可靠且一致的，而不取决于所分析的区域气候模型，边界条件，气候情景或未来时间间隔。