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Looking for a better future: modeling migrant mobility
Applied Network Science ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-22 , DOI: 10.1007/s41109-020-00308-9
Isabella Loaiza Saa , Matej Novak , Alfredo J. Morales , Alex Pentland

Massive migrations have become increasingly prevalent over the last decades. A recent example is the Venezuelan migration crisis across South America, which particularly affects neighboring countries like Colombia. Creating an effective response to the crisis is a challenge for governments and international agencies, given the lack of information about migrants’ location, flows and behaviors within and across host countries. For this purpose it is crucial to map and understand geographic patterns of migration, including spatial mobility and dynamics over time. The aim of this paper is to uncover mobility and economic patterns of migrants that left Venezuela and migrated into Colombia due to the effects of the ongoing social, political and economic crisis. We analyze and compare the behavior of two types of migrants: Venezuelan refugees and Colombian nationals who used to live in Venezuela and return to their home country. We adapt the gravity model for human mobility in order to explain migrants’ dispersion across Colombia, and analyze patterns of economic integration. This study is a first attempt at analyzing and comparing two kinds of migrant populations in one destination country, providing unique insight into the processes of mobility and integration after migration.



中文翻译:

寻找更美好的未来:模拟移民流动

在过去的几十年中,大规模的迁移变得越来越普遍。最近的一个例子是委内瑞拉在整个南美的移民危机,这尤其影响到哥伦比亚等邻国。鉴于缺乏有关移民在东道国内部和跨移民国的位置,流动和行为的信息,对危机和危机做出有效的应对是政府和国际机构的挑战。为此,至关重要的是绘制和了解迁徙的地理模式,包括随着时间推移的空间流动性和动态。本文的目的是揭示由于持续的社会,政治和经济危机而离开委内瑞拉并移民到哥伦比亚的移民的流动性和经济模式。我们分析和比较两种类型的移民的行为:曾经生活在委内瑞拉返回家园的委内瑞拉难民和哥伦比亚国民。我们将重力模型调整为适合人类流动的模型,以解释移民在哥伦比亚的分散情况,并分析经济一体化的模式。这项研究是对一个目的地国家的两种移民人口进行分析和比较的首次尝试,它为移民后的迁移和融合过程提供了独特的见解。

更新日期:2020-09-22
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