This paper investigates an unresolved question in environmental economics: An Environmental Kuznets Curve for deforestation (EKCd). It relies on a 55 year panel of forest cover data reconstructed from the periodic national forest inventories of 114 countries clustered in low, middle, and high income groups—as defined by the World Bank—and examines these clusters within both static and dynamic frameworks. The results are supportive of the inverse U-shaped EKC for deforestation. For low income countries strong effort will be required to avoid further increases in forest loss as these countries develop. Middle income countries, the largest cluster under investigation, display the classic bell-shaped EKCd with the turning point for a decreasing rate of deforestation at US$ 3,790. Deforestation continues thereafter, only at a lower rate until, eventually, for high income countries these rates become negative and these economies begin to show absolute gains in total forest cover. While the combined results from the three clusters confirm the existence of an EKCd, its relatively elevated turning point and the even higher level of development at which forests begin to increase and recover, raise important concern, but also opportunity, for the modern policies and management addressing global forest cover—doubts and opportunities on which the conclusion to this paper reflects further.

中文翻译：

---

森林砍伐的环境库兹涅茨曲线的全球经验重新评估

本文研究了环境经济学中一个未解决的问题：森林砍伐的环境库兹涅茨曲线 (EKCd)。它依赖于一个 55 年的森林覆盖数据面板，这些数据是从 114 个国家的定期国家森林清单重建的，这些国家属于世界银行定义的低收入、中等收入和高收入群体，并在静态和动态框架内检查了这些集群。结果支持倒 U 形 EKC 用于森林砍伐。对于低收入国家，需要大力努力避免随着这些国家的发展而进一步增加森林损失。中等收入国家是受调查的最大集群，显示经典的钟形 EKCd，森林砍伐率下降的转折点为 3,790 美元。此后继续砍伐森林，只是以较低的速度，直到，最终，对于高收入国家，这些比率变为负值，并且这些经济体开始显示总森林覆盖率的绝对增长。虽然三个集群的综合结果证实了 EKCd 的存在，但其相对较高的转折点以及森林开始增加和恢复的更高发展水平，为现代政策和管理带来了重要的关注，但也带来了机遇解决全球森林覆盖问题——本文结论进一步反映的疑虑和机遇。