In this study, 1961–2015 period FAOSTAT data of banana harvest area and production in Turkey was modeled with the objective to forecast banana harvest area and production for the 2016–2025 period. Stationarity was provided with taking the first difference of the time series. Several Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (1,1,0) and ARIMA (1,1,1)) and Exponential Smoothing (Holt, Brown and Damped) models were tested. Brown exponential smoothing model was determined as the most suitable one for forecasting banana harvest area and production. Banana harvest area was forecasted to be 6175 ha in 2016 and increase to 9733 ha in 2025 year. Banana production was predicted to show a substantial increase for the 2016–2025 period, from 291,667 to 482,093 t. Briefly, the results of this study could help policy makers to develop better macro-level policies for food security and sustainability, as well as to establish better banana planting area and production strategies in Turkey for the future.

中文翻译：

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使用时间序列分析预测土耳其的香蕉收割面积和产量

在本研究中，对1961–2015年期间FAOSTAT在土耳其香蕉收获面积和产量方面的数据进行了建模，目的是预测2016–2025年期间的香蕉收获面积和产量。平稳性是采用时间序列的第一个差异。测试了几个自回归综合移动平均线（ARIMA（0,1,1），ARIMA（1,1,0）和ARIMA（1,1,1））和指数平滑模型（Holt，Brown和Damped）。布朗指数平滑模型被确定为最适合预测香蕉收获面积和产量的模型。预计2016年香蕉收割面积为6175公顷，到2025年将增加到9733公顷。预计2016-2025年香蕉产量将大幅增加，从291,667吨增加到482,093吨。简而言之，