Abstract

This paper addresses the effects of climatic limiting factors (precipitation and air temperature) on the radial increment variability of Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) growing in the Voronezh State Biosphere Reserve under the conservation regime conditions. A natural 200-year-old pine stand belonging to the grassy pine forest with oak type was studied. The following analyses have been performed: a mathematical analysis of the strength and frequency of the relationship between the monthly precipitation amounts and average monthly air temperatures (based on the data of Voronezh and Voronezh Nature Reserve meteorological stations), as well as radial increments of the Scots pine throughout the period of 80 years. It was established that the sums of precipitation in April and especially in May have the maximum effect on the radial increment of Scots pine (spring wood). The precipitation in July–August significantly affects the late wood growth. A strong correlation between the radial increment and September and especially October temperatures of the current year (r = 0.43) and the previous year (r = 0.40) was identified. In addition, a negative correlation between the radial increment and summer temperatures was established. The correlation ratio of the relationship between the meteorological factors and radial increment was considerably higher than the correlation index, which confirms the nonlinear nature of this relationship. Based on the cyclical dynamics of the radial increment of Scots pine (11- and 34-year cycles), models have been built using two forecasting methods (Caterpillar Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and an additive increment model described by a sinusoid function with a given period), and an increment forecast for the 10-year period was produced. According to the models, the radial increment is going to decrease in 2018–2019, increase in 2021 ± 1, and decrease again in 2024 ± 2.

中文翻译：

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沃罗涅日生物圈保护区200年历史的苏格兰松树林的树状气候评估

摘要

本文探讨了气候限制因素（降水和气温）对苏格兰松（Pinus silvestris L.）在保护制度条件下在沃罗涅日国家生物圈保护区中生长。研究了属于橡树型草木松树林的具有200年历史的天然松木林。进行了以下分析：月降水量与月平均气温之间关系的强度和频率的数学分析（基于沃罗涅日和沃罗涅日自然保护区气象站的数据），以及径向增量苏格兰松树贯穿整个80年。已经确定，四月份，特别是五月份的降水总量，对苏格兰松树（春季木材）的径向增量影响最大。7月至8月的降水严重影响了后期的木材生长。r = 0.43）和上一年（r= 0.40）。另外，在径向增量和夏季温度之间建立了负相关。气象因子与径向增量之间的关系的相关比率大大高于相关指​​数，这证实了这种关系的非线性性质。基于苏格兰松树放射状增量（11年和34年周期）的周期性动力学，使用两种预测方法（卡特彼勒奇异谱分析（SSA））和由正弦函数描述的加性增量模型建立模型。给定的时间段），然后生成10年周期的增长预测。根据模型，径向增量将在2018-2019年减少，在2021±1处增加，在2024±2处再次减少。