The removal of all branding and promotions from tobacco products, known as ‘plain packaging’, is intended to decrease tobacco consumption. Here we examine the effectiveness of Australia’s plain packaging law, which coincided with a change in graphic and text health warnings, by using nationally indicative data 5 years post implementation. We measured the effect of the law on smoking prevalence, tobacco expenditure, expenditure intensity and quantity of tobacco consumed, using New Zealand as a control country in a difference-in-differences research design. We uncover a substitution effect that is robust to different specifications and control countries. In response to the policy, smokers switched from more expensive to cheaper cigarettes and reduced their overall tobacco expenditure and expenditure intensity. However, as smoking became less costly, smokers consumed more cigarettes. To discourage such substitution and to help the policy achieve its intended outcomes, policymakers should consider implementing auxiliary measures, such as taxes or price floors.

从烟草产品中去除所有品牌和促销，即所谓的“平装”，旨在减少烟草消费。在这里，我们通过使用实施后 5 年的全国指示性数据，检验了澳大利亚无装饰包装法的有效性，该法恰逢图形和文字健康警告的变化。我们使用新西兰作为差异中差异研究设计的对照国家，测量了法律对吸烟流行率、烟草支出、支出强度和烟草消费量的影响。我们发现了一种对不同规格和控制国家/地区具有鲁棒性的替代效应。为响应该政策，吸烟者从更昂贵的卷烟转向更便宜的卷烟，并降低了整体烟草支出和支出强度。然而，随着吸烟成本降低，吸烟者消费了更多的香烟。为了阻止这种替代并帮助政策实现预期结果，政策制定者应考虑实施辅助措施，例如税收或价格下限。