As climate change intensifies, the need for large-scale transformations that reform vulnerable systems’ prevailing values and development pathways is increasingly recognized. However, there is limited understanding of the factors that underlie such changes. This study sheds light on these factors by examining the case of Israel – a largely arid to semi-arid country with highly scarce natural water resources and a historical rural-agricultural ideology. Adopting an historically-informed systems perspective, I analyze two transformations that diminished Israel’s vulnerability to recurring droughts: the 1960s’ economic transformation from agriculture to industry, and the shift to seawater desalination in the mid-2000s. These changes are examined using causal-loop diagrams based on multiple data sources, including archival records, statistical reports and a systematic review of grey and academic literature.

The findings show that both transformations, instigated by state institutions during exceptionally severe droughts, were driven by shifts away from development paradigms embedded in the nation-building ideology, as well as by social stresses that exceeded the natural limits of the agricultural system and water supply system. Repeated drought shocks activated and later reactivated the shift to desalination, intended to a certain degree to reduce drought vulnerability. However, drought did not significantly affect the economic transformation, initiated mainly due to saturation in agricultural development. Thus, I argue that alongside concerted adaptation efforts state institutions should dedicate greater attention to the management of broader social challenges and crises in a manner that fosters greater resilience against future climate changes. Ideological shifts and consequent restructuring of development paths, as well as the interaction between population growth and limited natural resources, may constitute important entry points. These entry points are particularly pertinent to emerging economies in other dry areas, many of which face similar social and economic trends to those experienced in Israel over the last decades.

随着气候变化加剧，人们日益认识到需要进行大规模转型，以改革脆弱的系统的普遍价值和发展途径。但是，对于造成这种变化的因素了解有限。这项研究通过考察以色列的情况为这些因素提供了启示。以色列是一个干旱至半干旱的国家，其自然水资源极为匮乏，具有悠久的农村农业思想体系。我采用具有历史意义的系统视角，分析了两次转变，这些转变降低了以色列对反复干旱的脆弱性：1960年代从农业到工业的经济转变，以及在2000年代中期向海水淡化的转变。使用基于多个数据源的因果关系图检查这些更改，包括档案记录，

研究结果表明，这两种转变都是在极端干旱期间由国家机构发起的，这是由脱离建国意识形态的发展范式的转变以及社会压力超出了农业系统和供水的自然极限所驱动的。系统。反复的干旱冲击激活了，后来又恢复了向淡化的转变，这在一定程度上旨在降低干旱的脆弱性。但是，干旱并未对经济转型产生重大影响，这主要是由于农业发展饱和所致。因此，我认为，除了协调一致的努力外，国家机构还应该更加重视对更广泛的社会挑战和危机的管理，以增强对未来气候变化的适应力。意识形态转变和随之而来的发展路径调整以及人口增长与有限自然资源之间的相互作用可能构成重要的切入点。这些切入点与其他干旱地区的新兴经济体特别相关，这些新兴经济体中许多面临着与以色列过去几十年经历的社会和经济趋势类似的社会和经济趋势。