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Droughts Prediction: a Methodology Based on Climate Seasonal Forecasts
Water Resources Management ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-21 , DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02623-3
E. Arnone , Marco Cucchi , Sara Dal Gesso , Marcello Petitta , Sandro Calmanti

This study proposes a methodology for the drought assessment based on the seasonal forecasts. These are climate predictions of atmospheric variables, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, for upcoming season, up to 7 months. In regions particularly vulnerable to droughts and to changes in climate, such as the Mediterranean areas, predictions of precipitation with months in advance are crucial for understanding the possible shifts, for example, in water resource availability. Over Europe, practical applications of seasonal forecasts are still rare, because of the uncertainties of their skills; however, the predictability varies depending on the season and area of application. In this study, we describe a methodology which integrates, through a statistical approach, seasonal forecast and reanalysis data to assess the climate state, i.e. drought or not, of a region for predefined periods in the next future, at monthly scale. Additionally, the skill of the forecasts and the reliability of the released climate state assessment are estimated in terms of the false rate, i.e. the probability of missing alerts or false alarms. The methodology has been first built for a case study in Zakynthos (Greece) and then validated for a case study in Sicily (Italy). The selected locations represent two areas of the Mediterranean region often suffering from drought and water shortage situations. Results showed promising findings, with satisfying matching between predictions and observations, and false rates ranging from 1 to 50%, depending on the selected forecast period.



中文翻译:

干旱预测:基于气候季节预报的方法

这项研究提出了一种基于季节预报的干旱评估方法。这些是未来7个月内大气变量(例如降水,温度,风速)的气候预测。在特别易受干旱和气候变化影响的地区(例如地中海地区),提前几个月进行降雨预报对于了解可能的变化(例如水资源的可获得性)至关重要。在欧洲,由于预报技术的不确定性,在实际应用中仍很少使用季节性预报。但是,可预测性取决于应用季节和应用领域。在这项研究中,我们描述了一种方法,该方法通过统计方法整合了季节预报和再分析数据以评估气候状态,即 在未来的某个预定时期内,该区域是否每月发生干旱。另外,根据错误率(即丢失警报或错误警报的概率)来估算预报的技巧和发布的气候状态评估的可靠性。该方法首先在扎金索斯(希腊)的案例研究中建立,然后在西西里岛(意大利)的案例研究中得到验证。所选地点代表地中海地区两个经常遭受干旱和缺水情况的地区。结果显示出令人鼓舞的发现,在预测和观察结果之间具有令人满意的匹配,根据选定的预测时段,错误率在1%到50%之间。预测的技巧和发布的气候状态评估的可靠性是根据错误率(即丢失警报或错误警报的概率)估算的。该方法首先在扎金索斯(希腊)的案例研究中建立,然后在西西里岛(意大利)的案例研究中得到验证。所选地点代表地中海地区两个经常遭受干旱和缺水情况的地区。结果显示出令人鼓舞的发现,在预测和观察结果之间具有令人满意的匹配,根据选定的预测时段,错误率在1%到50%之间。预测的技巧和发布的气候状态评估的可靠性是根据错误率(即丢失警报或错误警报的概率)估算的。该方法首先在扎金索斯(希腊)的案例研究中建立,然后在西西里岛(意大利)的案例研究中得到验证。所选地点代表地中海地区两个经常遭受干旱和缺水情况的地区。结果显示出令人鼓舞的发现,在预测和观察结果之间具有令人满意的匹配度,错误率从1%到50%不等,具体取决于所选的预测时间段。该方法首先在扎金索斯(希腊)的案例研究中建立,然后在西西里岛(意大利)的案例研究中得到验证。所选地点代表地中海地区两个经常遭受干旱和缺水情况的地区。结果显示出令人鼓舞的发现,在预测和观察结果之间具有令人满意的匹配度,错误率从1%到50%不等,具体取决于所选的预测时间段。该方法首先在扎金索斯(希腊)的案例研究中建立,然后在西西里岛(意大利)的案例研究中得到验证。所选地点代表地中海地区两个经常遭受干旱和缺水情况的地区。结果显示出令人鼓舞的发现,在预测和观察结果之间具有令人满意的匹配度,错误率从1%到50%不等,具体取决于所选的预测时间段。

更新日期:2020-09-21
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