ABSTRACT In current urban planning practice, macroscopic transport demand and assignment models are essential for the evaluation of mid- and long-term land use developments and infrastructure investments. The credibility of their projections strongly depends on their ability to reproduce present day traffic volumes. Obviously, a simplified model of reality will display some shortcomings, and the effect of these is asserted by quality measures that quantify the divergence from observed traffic volumes. There is, however, only rough guidance regarding acceptable ranges of these measures. Most of the literature on this subject approach these ranges from below, by discussing measures attained by operational models and using these as a benchmark, or by using the adverse effects of modelling errors to derive a minimum quality level. On the contrary, this study suggests upper limits for quality measures by analysing year-on-year variations in traffic volumes that result from changing land use and infrastructure.

中文翻译：

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将建模质量的度量应用于国家时间序列：交通需求模型的基准

摘要 在当前的城市规划实践中，宏观交通需求和分配模型对于评估中长期土地利用开发和基础设施投资至关重要。他们预测的可信度在很大程度上取决于他们再现当今交通量的能力。显然，简化的现实模型会显示出一些缺陷，这些缺陷的影响是通过量化与观察到的交通量的差异的质量度量来确定的。然而，关于这些措施的可接受范围，只有粗略的指导。大多数关于该主题的文献通过讨论操作模型所获得的措施并将其用作基准，或通过使用建模错误的不利影响来推导出最低质量水平，来从以下角度处理这些范围。相反，