ABSTRACT This paper describes the development of a probabilistic formulation that provides global optimum selection and allocation of a fleet of buses in a private transportation system of an organization where a third party is hired to provide transportation for its employees and their dependents. In this private transportation system, a fleet of buses is to be selected and allocated to serve employees and their independents on different prescheduled trips along different routes from the organization’s headquarters and residential compound where round-trip times of scheduled trips are subject to uncertainty due to random delays. We propose a probabilistic approach based on 0-1 integer programming for the selection and allocation to determine the optimal number and size of buses assigned to a set of prescheduled trips in a particular time interval. Examples and a case study are presented to illustrate the applicability and suitability of the proposed approach.

中文翻译：

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私人交通系统中公交选择和分配的不确定性建模

摘要 本文描述了概率公式的开发，该公式在组织的私人交通系统中提供巴士车队的全局优化选择和分配，在该系统中聘请第三方为其员工及其家属提供交通服务。在这个私人交通系统中，将选择和分配一支巴士车队，为员工及其独立人士提供沿不同路线的不同预定行程，从组织总部和住宅区出发，预定行程的往返时间因以下原因而不确定随机延迟。我们提出了一种基于 0-1 整数规划的概率方法，用于选择和分配，以确定在特定时间间隔内分配给一组预定行程的公交车的最佳数量和大小。