ABSTRACT Temperatures in South Australia have risen 0.5–1.5°C post-1950, a trend expected to drive ecological change. However, climate sensitivity, landscape resilience and management priorities vary among regions. We classified the vulnerability of South Australian plant assemblages to climate change in a framework that combines climate sensitivity and resilience. Generalised Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) of plant species composition were trained with species occurrence records from field plots. Resilience was represented by the proportional remnancy of native vegetation surrounding each location. Landscapes were classified using bivariate quantiles. Mean annual rainfall, summer maximum temperatures and spatial structure were important predictors of species turnover. GDMs (explaining 37–68% of deviance) were projected onto future climate scenarios to calculate sensitivity metrics. The Wheat Belt, mallee and Flinders Ranges were the most sensitive, representing a climatic transition characterised by rapid change in species assemblages. Southern Eyre Peninsula and western Kangaroo Island were classified as Resilient; the Mount Lofty Ranges, southern Flinders Ranges and eastern Kangaroo Island as Resistant; northern Eyre Peninsula and northern Flinders Ranges as Sensitive; and the Wheat Belt as Susceptible. The classification assists decisions on management priority and provenances or species selection for restoration and assisted migration in conjunction with other biodiversity measures.

中文翻译：

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南澳大利亚的生态气候变化分类

摘要 1950 年后南澳大利亚的气温上升了 0.5-1.5°C，这一趋势预计将推动生态变化。然而，气候敏感性、景观恢复力和管理重点因地区而异。我们在结合气候敏感性和弹性的框架中对南澳大利亚植物组合对气候变化的脆弱性进行了分类。植物物种组成的广义差异模型 (GDM) 使用田间地块的物种发生记录进行训练。复原力由每个位置周围原生植被的剩余比例表示。景观使用二元分位数进行分类。年平均降雨量、夏季最高气温和空间结构是物种周转的重要预测因子。GDM（解释了 37-68% 的偏差）被预测到未来的气候情景中以计算敏感性指标。小麦带、马里山脉和弗林德斯山脉最为敏感，代表了以物种组合快速变化为特征的气候转变。南艾尔半岛和西部袋鼠岛被归类为有弹性；洛夫蒂山脉、弗林德斯山脉南部和袋鼠岛东部有抵抗力；艾尔半岛北部和弗林德斯山脉北部为敏感地区；和小麦带易感。分类有助于决定管理优先级和来源或物种选择以与其他生物多样性措施相结合以进行恢复和协助迁移。代表了以物种组合快速变化为特征的气候转变。南艾尔半岛和西部袋鼠岛被归类为有弹性；洛夫蒂山脉、弗林德斯山脉南部和袋鼠岛东部有抵抗力；艾尔半岛北部和弗林德斯山脉北部为敏感地区；和小麦带易感。分类有助于决定管理优先级和来源或物种选择以与其他生物多样性措施相结合以进行恢复和协助迁移。代表了以物种组合快速变化为特征的气候转变。南艾尔半岛和西部袋鼠岛被归类为有弹性；洛夫蒂山脉、弗林德斯山脉南部和袋鼠岛东部有抵抗力；艾尔半岛北部和弗林德斯山脉北部为敏感地区；和小麦带易感。分类有助于决定管理优先级和来源或物种选择以与其他生物多样性措施相结合以进行恢复和协助迁移。和小麦带易感。分类有助于决定管理优先级和来源或物种选择以与其他生物多样性措施相结合以进行恢复和协助迁移。和小麦带易感。分类有助于决定管理优先级和来源或物种选择以与其他生物多样性措施相结合以进行恢复和协助迁移。