ABSTRACT Despite compulsory school instruction in the Welsh language and strong cultural incentives to acquire the language, the most recent UK Census showed a downward trend in the number of speakers. The asymmetry in explicit language acquisition incentives is here considered to be offset by the media dominance of the English language. This dominance is modeled by the introduction of time-dependent connectivity and infectivity among English speakers into an adapted epidemiological model. Extrapolations up to 2050 are made, this being the announced date of a Welsh Assembly language-planning target of one million Welsh speakers.

中文翻译：

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媒体对威尔士语言保护的压力

摘要 尽管学校强制要求使用威尔士语教学，并且有很强的文化激励来学习该语言，但最近的英国人口普查显示，使用威尔士语的人数呈下降趋势。明确语言习得激励的不对称在这里被认为被英语语言的媒体主导地位所抵消。这种优势是通过将英语使用者之间的时间依赖性连通性和传染性引入适应的流行病学模型来建模的。推断到 2050 年，这是宣布威尔士汇编语言计划目标为 100 万讲威尔士语的人的日期。