Most efforts to establish precautionary guidelines for fisheries management use essentially ad hoc impressions as to what constitutes conservative management. Such approaches, however, fail to take into account the magnitude of the uncertainty about particular systems. One alternative approach to precautionary management is robust control, in which decision makers attempt to maximize an outcome under the assumption that the conditions will be worse than expected. In this paper, we apply a robust optimization approach to estimate the maximum sustainable yield and other reference points for the Chesapeake Bay blue crab Callinectes sapidus fishery. This approach is relatively easy to implement in standard stock assessment models that use a maximum‐likelihood approach to estimate model parameters. In addition, it has the advantage that a standard level of precaution can be chosen by decision makers and then applied to different fisheries with vastly different levels of data and analysis.

中文翻译：

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使用鲁棒控制理论开发渔业管理的预防性参考点：在切萨皮克湾青蟹Callinectes sapidus渔业中的应用

建立渔业管理预防性指导方针的大多数努力基本上都使用关于构成保守管理的临时印象。但是，这种方法没有考虑到有关特定系统的不确定性的大小。预防性管理的一种替代方法是鲁棒控制，在这种情况下，决策者会在条件会比预期更糟的假设下尝试最大化结果。在本文中，我们采用了一种鲁棒的优化方法来估算切萨皮克湾蓝蟹Callinectes sapidus的最大可持续产量和其他参考点渔业。在使用最大似然法估算模型参数的标准库存评估模型中，此方法相对容易实施。此外，它的优点是决策者可以选择标准的预防措施，然后将其应用于数据和分析水平差异很大的不同渔业。