Mixed‐stock fisheries simultaneously exploit populations that may differ in their conservation status, and uncertainty in stock‐specific harvest rates can hamper evaluations of recovery prospects for depressed populations. These difficulties are exemplified in the Sockeye Salmon population from the Atnarko watershed, which collapsed in the early 2000s, causing cultural and economic hardship. A recovery plan identified the incidental harvest of Sockeye Salmon by mixed‐stock fisheries in the Atnarko as a potential, but poorly understood, impediment to recovery. We reconstructed harvest rates for salmon in Indigenous and commercial fisheries and used an age‐structured state‐space model of stock–recruit dynamics to predict how a range of future mixed‐stock harvest rates would influence recovery. Under recent harvest rates, there is a 50–60% chance that the population will grow to exceed a recovery goal of 15,000 spawners over the next four generations. Eliminating the harvest of Sockeye Salmon altogether increased predicted recovery prospects to a maximum of 69%, suggesting that factors other than fisheries are contributing to the lack of recovery (e.g., ocean conditions) and that harvest management alone is unlikely to lead to recovery with a high degree of certainty. We developed a generalized migration, harvest, and catch monitoring simulation model to quantify how different monitoring scenarios might improve estimates for mixed‐stock harvest rates. Increasing the number of specimens collected for genetic samples improved the harvest rate estimates for each stock caught in the mixed‐stock fisheries, particularly for the smallest stocks, and relative to single sampling events conducted near the peak of the return migration, weekly sampling improved estimates only slightly but provided insurance against missing the peak of the return migration. Our study highlights collaborative research initiated and directed by the Nuxalk Nation to promote the recovery of a depressed stock that is inherent to traditional foods, thereby contributing to a global effort to integrate Indigenous cultural values with biological conservation.

中文翻译：

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混养渔业中濒临灭绝和具有重要文化意义的鲑鱼种群恢复前景的保护风险和不确定性

混养渔业同时开发其养护状况可能不同的种群，种群特定捕捞率的不确定性可能会影响对低迷种群恢复前景的评估。这些困难在Atnarko流域的红鲑鱼种群中得到了体现，该种群在2000年代初崩溃，造成了文化和经济困难。一项恢复计划将阿塔那科地区混养渔业偶然捕捞的红鲑鱼作为潜在的障碍，但知之甚少，阻碍了恢复。我们重建了土著和商业渔业鲑鱼的收获率，并使用了年龄结构化的种群-招聘动态状态空间模型来预测未来一系列混合种群的收获率将如何影响恢复。根据最近的收成率，在接下来的四代中，种群增长到超过15,000个产卵者恢复目标的可能性为50-60％。完全消除鲑鱼的收获，可将预测的恢复前景最大提高到69％，这表明除渔业以外的其他因素正在导致缺乏恢复（例如，海洋条件），仅靠捕捞管理就不可能导致恢复。高度确定性。我们开发了一个广义的迁移，收获和捕获监控模拟模型，以量化不同的监控方案如何改善混合种群收获率的估计。收集遗传样品的标本数量增加，从而改善了混合种群渔业中每一种种群的估计收成率，尤其是最小种群的种群，相对于在返乡迁移高峰附近进行的一次抽样事件，每周抽样仅略微改善了估算值，但为避免返乡高峰提供了保证。我们的研究重点介绍了由Nuxalk国家发起和指导的合作研究，以促进传统食品固有的低迷种群的恢复，从而为将土著文化价值与生物保护相结合的全球努力做出了贡献。