Historic land-use and land-cover data are important inputs for assessing the impacts of human activity on the environment. Our goal was to reconstruct land-cover change from 1770 to 2010 and to evaluate its spatial determinants and underlying drivers for three study sites in diverse agroecological settings in Ryazan province in European Russia. We used historic maps and statistics as well as satellite imagery to reconstruct land-cover change and categorize it into six distinct land-management regimes. We applied spatially-explicit logistic regressions to assess which spatial determinants have had the strongest influences on land cover and how these influences have changed over time. Our results show how long-term land-cover trajectories can be modulated by broad political and economic alterations, rather than through gradual and local demand-side pressures from a rising population density and an increasing local demand for agricultural commodities.

历史土地使用和土地覆盖数据是评估人类活动对环境影响的重要输入。我们的目标是重建1770年至2010年的土地覆盖变化，并评估其在欧洲俄罗斯梁赞省不同农业生态环境中三个研究地点的空间决定因素和潜在动因。我们使用历史地图和统计数据以及卫星图像来重建土地覆被变化并将其归类为六个不同的土地管理制度。我们应用了空间显式逻辑回归来评估哪些空间决定因素对土地覆盖的影响最大，以及这些影响如何随时间变化。我们的结果表明，长期的土地覆盖轨迹可以通过广泛的政治和经济变化来调节，