ABSTRACT Many scholars argue that very early design phases are not supported adequately in many respects, although they are at the cornerstone of successful new product development. Difficulties in developing appropriate methods emerge because of the need to account for uncertainties and ambiguities that feature the Fuzzy Front End. This is likely the reason behind the limited industrial adoption of existing design methods, especially those that are oriented to support Product Planning. In this context, the thrust of the paper is the attempt to identify key activities and functions featuring Product Planning. The study entrusts figures about the foreseeable growth of the intensity of research displayed by classes of methods supporting different functions in Product Planning. As the data, emerging from the application of S-curves, indicate no preferential direction in the medium term, other phenomena are monitored that might overturn the conventional systematic course of action to design in the early stages. The ‘trial-and-error’ learning approach characterising agile strategies can be seen as a partial answer to the expected demise of research about Product Planning. Beyond these conclusions, the paper includes a frame of reference that classifies Product Planning methods (adequately reviewed) beyond the classical distinction between responsive and proactive approaches.

中文翻译：

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调查模糊前端的未来：在非常早期的设计阶段改变范式？

摘要 许多学者认为，尽管非常早期的设计阶段是成功开发新产品的基石，但在许多方面都没有得到充分支持。由于需要考虑模糊前端的不确定性和模糊性，因此出现了开发适当方法的困难。这可能是现有设计方法在工业界采用有限的原因，尤其是那些以支持产品规划为导向的设计方法。在这种情况下，本文的主旨是试图确定以产品规划为特色的关键活动和功能。该研究委托有关支持产品规划中不同功能的方法类别所显示的研究强度的可预见增长的数字。由于数据来自 S 曲线的应用，表明中期没有优先方向，其他现象可能会推翻早期设计的传统系统行动过程。表征敏捷策略的“试错”学习方法可以被视为对产品规划研究预期消亡的部分答案。除了这些结论之外，本文还包括一个参考框架，该框架对产品规划方法（经过充分审查）进行了分类，超越了响应式方法和主动式方法之间的经典区别。表征敏捷策略的“试错”学习方法可以被视为对产品规划研究预期消亡的部分答案。除了这些结论之外，本文还包括一个参考框架，该框架对产品规划方法（经过充分审查）进行了分类，超越了响应式方法和主动式方法之间的经典区别。表征敏捷策略的“试错”学习方法可以被视为对产品规划研究预期消亡的部分答案。除了这些结论之外，本文还包括一个参考框架，该框架对产品规划方法（经过充分审查）进行了分类，超越了响应式方法和主动式方法之间的经典区别。