ABSTRACT Sir Alan Wilson's ideas have been highly influential in the modelling of phenomena including migration, transport and economics. Latterly, research has explored the application of similar ideas to new problems at larger scales. Many of these studies relate to global challenges with significant policy implications. Here, we present an example in the form of original empirical work concerning forced migration associated with the current Syrian refugee crisis. We employ a spatial interaction framework to examine the flows of migrants fleeing Syria and the characteristics which influence their choice of destination country. In line with the broader literature, we find that shorter distances, economic prosperity, and cultural similarity (e.g. shared language) attract forced migrants, as does the probability of being granted asylum; a finding with potential implications for policy. Contrary to expectation, we find little influence for levels of security in potential host nations (e.g. absence of terrorism).

中文翻译：

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空间互动与安全：叙利亚难民危机的回顾与案例研究

摘要 Alan Wilson 爵士的思想在包括移民、运输和经济学在内的现象建模方面具有很高的影响力。最近，研究探索了类似的想法在更大规模的新问题中的应用。其中许多研究与具有重大政策影响的全球挑战有关。在这里，我们以与当前叙利亚难民危机相关的强迫移民的原创实证工作的形式展示了一个例子。我们采用空间交互框架来研究逃离叙利亚的移民流动以及影响他们选择目的地国家的特征。与更广泛的文献一致，我们发现距离较短、经济繁荣和文化相似性（例如共享语言）吸引了被迫移民，获得庇护的可能性也是如此；对政策有潜在影响的发现。与预期相反，我们发现对潜在东道国的安全水平影响不大（例如没有恐怖主义）。