当前位置: X-MOL 学术GeoHealth › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Global Climate and Human Health Effects of the Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle Fleets
GeoHealth ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-11 , DOI: 10.1029/2019gh000240
Yaoxian Huang 1 , Nadine Unger 2 , Kandice Harper 3 , Chris Heyes 4
Affiliation  

The global gasoline and diesel fuel vehicle fleets impose substantial impacts on air quality, human health, and climate change. Here we quantify the global radiative forcing and human health impacts of the global gasoline and diesel sectors using the NCAR CESM global chemistry‐climate model for year 2015 emissions from the IIASA GAINS inventory. Net global radiative effects of short‐lived climate forcers (including aerosols, ozone, and methane) from the gasoline and diesel sectors are +13.6 and +9.4 mW m−2, respectively. The annual mean net aerosol contributions to the net radiative effects of gasoline and diesel are −9.6 ± 2.0 and +8.8 ± 5.8 mW m−2. Aerosol indirect effects for the gasoline and diesel road vehicle sectors are −16.6 ± 2.1 and −40.6 ± 4.0 mW m−2. The fractional contributions of short‐lived climate forcers to the total global climate impact including carbon dioxide on the 20‐year time scale are similar, 14.9% and 14.4% for gasoline and diesel, respectively. Global annual total PM2.5‐ and ozone‐induced premature deaths for gasoline and diesel sectors approach 115,000 (95% CI: 69,000–153,600) and 122,100 (95% CI: 78,500–157,500), with corresponding years of life lost of 2.10 (95% CI: 1.23–2.66) and 2.21 (95% CI: 1.47–2.85) million years. Substantial regional variability of premature death rates is found for the diesel sector when the regional health effects are normalized by the annual total regional vehicle distance traveled. Regional premature death rates for the gasoline and diesel sectors, respectively, vary by a factor of eight and two orders of magnitude, with India showing the highest for both gasoline and diesel sectors.

中文翻译:

汽油和柴油车队对全球气候和人类健康的影响

全球的汽油和柴油燃料车队对空气质量,人类健康和气候变化产生了重大影响。在这里,我们使用IIASA GAINS清单中2015年排放的NCAR CESM全球化学气候模型来量化全球汽油和柴油行业对全球辐射强迫和人类健康的影响。来自汽油和柴油行业的短期气候驱动器(包括气溶胶,臭氧和甲烷)的全球净辐射效应分别为+13.6和+9.4 mW m -2。年平均气溶胶对汽油和柴油的净辐射作用的贡献为-9.6±2.0和+8.8±5.8 mW m -2。汽油和柴油公路车辆部门的气溶胶间接影响为-16.6±2.1和-40.6±4.0 mW m -2。在20年的时间尺度上,短暂的气候力量对包括二氧化碳在内的全球气候总影响的贡献相似,汽油和柴油分别为14.9%和14.4%。全球年度总PM 2.5臭氧和臭氧引起的汽油和柴油部门过早死亡分别接近115,000(95%CI:69,000–153,600)和122,100(95%CI:78,500–157,500),相应的寿命减少了2.10(95%CI:1.23– 2.66)和2.21(95%CI:1.47-1.85)百万年。当区域健康影响通过每年行驶的区域车辆总距离归一化时,发现柴油部门的过早死亡率存在较大的区域差异。汽油和柴油部门的区域过早死亡率分别变化了八倍和两个数量级,其中印度显示出汽油和柴油部门的最高死亡率。
更新日期:2020-03-11
down
wechat
bug