Abstract We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year−1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1 m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2 m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3 m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.

中文翻译：

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沿海度假城市对墨西哥加勒比海平面上升的脆弱性

摘要 我们评估了墨西哥加勒比地区海平面上升 (SLR) 增加的潜在经济影响，我们对控制与未来生态和经济影响相关的洪水持续时间和频率的机制的理解存在重大差距。我们确定了 SLR 对金塔纳罗奥州（墨西哥）最大城市中心（坎昆、女人岛、普拉亚德尔卡曼、莫雷洛斯港和科苏梅尔）基础设施的负面经济影响，这些中心被认为是最大的旅游“热点”（度假城市）在该国。这个沿海地区的旅游业每年为墨西哥经济注入超过 80 亿美元。我们关于 SLR 影响的保守经济评估，在所有沿海城市的 100 万情景下为 3.3 亿美元。对最坏情况的进一步预测（SLR > 2 m) 显示非线性趋势，其中不作为的成本可高达 14 亿美元（2 m SLR 情景）和 23 亿美元（3 m SLR 情景）。这种潜在的基础设施损失，作为建设成本，是惊人的，代表了一个强有力的基线，可以开始评估气候变率和变化对墨西哥加勒比海岸线的更详细的未来影响。