Abstract Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.

中文翻译：

---

海平面上升：帮助决策者应对不可避免的事情

摘要 海平面上升（SLR）不仅仅是未来趋势；它现在发生在全球大多数沿海地区。因此，它不仅影响沿海环境的长期规划，而且影响应急准备。其在长期尺度上的不可避免性和不可逆性，除了其空间不均匀性、不确定的幅度和时间以及在规划和工程时间尺度上推动沿海洪水非平稳性的能力之外，还为沿海风险管理决策过程带来了独特的挑战。该审查评估了美国联邦政府过去为综合不断发展的 SLR 科学以支持沿海风险管理所做的努力。特别是，它概述了：(1) 全球 SLR 情景演变为那些使用基于风险的视角的情景，该视角还考虑了低概率但后果严重的结果，(2) 全球情景的区域化，以及 (3) 概率方法的使用。它还描述了通过将当地平均海平面变化与极端水位预测相结合来进一步背景化区域情景的努力。最后，它提供了与未来海平面变化情景在决策中的吸收、解释和应用相关的关键问题的观点。这些观点有助于制定准备和恢复措施的标准和指南，以减少沿海洪水风险和与 SLR 相关的其他影响。它提供了与未来海平面变化情景在决策中的吸收、解释和应用相关的关键问题的观点。这些观点有助于制定准备和恢复措施的标准和指南，以减少沿海洪水风险和与 SLR 相关的其他影响。它提供了与未来海平面变化情景在决策中的吸收、解释和应用相关的关键问题的观点。这些观点有助于制定准备和恢复措施的标准和指南，以减少沿海洪水风险和与 SLR 相关的其他影响。