ABSTRACT Modern societies are increasingly dependent on interconnected infrastructure networks. The vulnerability of these networks to complex, and potentially cascading, interdependency-related failures is also increasing. Infrastructure networks face multi-faceted risks at the confluence of many emerging societal and environmental pressures. Navigating pathways through these risks necessitates resilience-based initiatives with compelling economic value cases. In this paper, we use the novel ‘Measuring the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool’ (MERIT) to assess the economic disruption associated with a potential Alpine Fault earthquake, with an estimated 30 percent probability of happening in the next 50 years (Robinson et al. 2015). Our analysis is focused mainly on infrastructure-related economic disruption. We advocate for a system-of-systems approach that assesses consequences dynamically across space, through time, for multiple stakeholders. Our integrated modelling approach involves dynamic equilibrium-seeking feedbacks and organisational behavioural adaptation that fosters systems thinking, richer modelling and reduces risks of double counting or omission. One year after the earthquake, the loss in Gross Domestic Product is shown to range between NZ$156 and 586 million (∼US$135–508 million). Our research represents a crucial first step to developing better economic value cases for resilience-related infrastructure investment.

中文翻译：

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新西兰高山断层地震基础设施相互依存关系的经济系统建模

摘要 现代社会越来越依赖互连的基础设施网络。这些网络对复杂的、潜在的级联、相互依赖相关的故障的脆弱性也在增加。在许多新出现的社会和环境压力的汇合下，基础设施网络面临着多方面的风险。在这些风险中导航需要具有引人注目的经济价值案例的基于弹性的计划。在本文中，我们使用新颖的“衡量弹性基础设施的经济性工具”（MERIT）来评估与潜在高山断层地震相关的经济破坏，估计在未来 50 年内发生的概率为 30%（Robinson 等人. 2015）。我们的分析主要集中在与基础设施相关的经济中断上。我们提倡一种系统的系统方法，该方法可以跨空间、跨时间、为多个利益相关者动态评估后果。我们的综合建模方法涉及动态平衡寻求反馈和组织行为适应，可促进系统思维、更丰富的建模并降低重复计算或遗漏的风险。地震发生一年后，国内生产总值的损失显示在 1.56 至 5.86 亿新西兰元（约 1.35-5.08 亿美元）之间。我们的研究代表了为与弹性相关的基础设施投资开发更好的经济价值案例的关键第一步。我们的综合建模方法涉及动态平衡寻求反馈和组织行为适应，可促进系统思维、更丰富的建模并降低重复计算或遗漏的风险。地震发生一年后，国内生产总值的损失显示在 1.56 至 5.86 亿新西兰元（约 1.35-5.08 亿美元）之间。我们的研究代表了为与弹性相关的基础设施投资开发更好的经济价值案例的关键第一步。我们的综合建模方法涉及动态平衡寻求反馈和组织行为适应，可促进系统思维、更丰富的建模并降低重复计算或遗漏的风险。地震发生一年后，国内生产总值的损失显示在 1.56 至 5.86 亿新西兰元（约 1.35-5.08 亿美元）之间。我们的研究代表了为与弹性相关的基础设施投资开发更好的经济价值案例的关键第一步。