ABSTRACT Decision making subject to uncertain information, whether fake or factual, in the context of management of socio-technical systems, is critically discussed from both philosophical and operational perspectives. In dealing with possible fake, incorrect and/or factual information we take the perspective that any information utilised as basis for supporting decisions, has to be dealt with in exactly the same manner – in accordance with Bayesian decision analysis. The important issue is to identify and model the scenarios through which information may cause adverse consequences and to account for their potential effects. To this end we first provide a mapping of how information affects the decision making context and a categorisation of causes for information leading to adverse consequences. Secondly, we introduce a decision analytical framework aiming to optimise decision alternatives for managing systems including not only one possible system model but a set of different possible system models. As a means for assessing the benefit of collecting additional information, we utilise Value of Information analysis from Bayesian decision analysis. Finally, a principal example is provided which illustrates selected aspects of how possibly fake information affects decision making and how it might be dealt with.

中文翻译：

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信与假——处理决策分析中的关键信息

摘要 在社会技术系统管理的背景下，受制于不确定信息的决策，无论是假的还是事实的，都从哲学和操作的角度进行了批判性讨论。在处理可能的虚假、不正确和/或事实信息时，我们认为任何用作支持决策基础的信息都必须以完全相同的方式处理——根据贝叶斯决策分析。重要的问题是确定信息可能导致不利后果的情景并对其进行建模，并说明其潜在影响。为此，我们首先提供了信息如何影响决策背景的映射以及导致不利后果的信息原因分类。第二，我们引入了一个决策分析框架，旨在优化管理系统的决策替代方案，不仅包括一个可能的系统模型，还包括一组不同的可能系统模型。作为评估收集额外信息的好处的一种手段，我们利用贝叶斯决策分析中的信息价值分析。最后，提供了一个主要示例，它说明了虚假信息如何影响决策以及如何处理的选定方面。