ABSTRACT Most formal engineering approaches to uncertainty use risk-based methods. Because risk formulations have a number of limitations there are situations where a resilience approach is preferable. A problem with resilience is the difficulty of measuring it. The paper discusses the issue and shows how a resilience formulation was used to prioritise actions to improve infrastructure resilience in an extensive region of New Zealand. The region was a complex system-of-systems so a systems approach was used. Once modelled, the infrastructure system was probed using three natural-hazard scenarios to determine system-element vulnerabilities. The vulnerability of each element was then matched with an importance value reflecting the effect of an element failure on community resilience. Community resilience was quantified in terms of overall income coming from three main sources each of which could be characterised by flow in a virtual pipeline. The pipelines were complex: tourism, for instance, required not only roads but also accommodation, communication, access and so on. The effect of infrastructure failures on pipeline flow and hence income quantified the relative importance of each infrastructure element. The vulnerability and importance values as a pair prioritised resilience-improving intervention for the element.

中文翻译：

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提高基础设施弹性

摘要 大多数正式的不确定性工程方法都使用基于风险的方法。因为风险公式有许多限制，所以在某些情况下，弹性方法更可取。弹性的一个问题是测量它的难度。本文讨论了这个问题，并展示了如何使用弹性公式来确定提高新西兰广阔地区基础设施弹性的行动的优先级。该地区是一个复杂的系统系统，因此使用了系统方法。建模后，使用三种自然灾害场景探测基础设施系统，以确定系统元素漏洞。然后将每个元素的脆弱性与反映元素故障对社区复原力的影响的重要性值相匹配。社区弹性是根据来自三个主要来源的总收入来量化的，每个来源都可以用虚拟管道中的流量来表征。管道很复杂：例如，旅游业不仅需要道路，还需要住宿、通讯、通道等。基础设施故障对管道流量和收入的影响量化了每个基础设施元素的相对重要性。作为一对的脆弱性和重要性值优先考虑元素的弹性改进干预。基础设施故障对管道流量和收入的影响量化了每个基础设施元素的相对重要性。作为一对的脆弱性和重要性值优先考虑元素的弹性改进干预。基础设施故障对管道流量和收入的影响量化了每个基础设施元素的相对重要性。作为一对的脆弱性和重要性值优先考虑元素的弹性改进干预。