This paper explores the possible effects on agriculture of ending the market access provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper considers two hypothetical scenarios: one revolving around a fallback to most‐favored‐nation (MFN) tariff rates and the other considering the additional effect of increased transaction costs in intraregional trade. Results from a computable general equilibrium model indicate that applying MFN tariff rates to U.S.–Canada and U.S.–Mexico agricultural trade would lead to a 14.43% reduction in these trade flows, while a scenario also featuring higher transaction costs would bring an even larger reduction (21.25%). In both scenarios, almost every agricultural product experiences a reduction in bilateral trade, with U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico undergoing some of the largest proportionate decreases. Many sectors within North American agriculture would have lower output, including fruit and nuts, vegetables, oilseeds and vegetable oils, and processed foods in Canada; fruit, vegetables, and beef in Mexico; and poultry meat, pork, beef, and dairy products in the United States.

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终止北美自由贸易协定的市场准入条款对区域内农产品贸易的影响

本文探讨了终止《北美自由贸易协定》（NAFTA）的市场准入条款对农业的可能影响。本文考虑了两种假设情景：一种围绕回落至最惠国关税率，另一种考虑区域内贸易中交易成本增加的额外影响。可计算的一般均衡模型的结果表明，对美国-加拿大和美国-墨西哥的农产品贸易采用最惠国关税税率将导致这些贸易流量减少14.43％，而同时具有较高交易成本的情形将带来更大的减少（ 21.25％）。在这两种情况下，几乎每种农产品与美国的双边贸易都会减少。对墨西哥的农产品出口下降幅度最大。北美农业中的许多部门的产量将较低，包括加拿大的水果和坚果，蔬菜，油料和植物油以及加工食品；墨西哥的水果，蔬菜和牛肉；以及美国的禽肉，猪肉，牛肉和奶制品。