The southern pine beetle (SPB) is among the leading biological agents killing southern pine species in the eastern United States. In light of recognized spatiotemporal autocorrelation in SPB outbreaks, we devise a spatiotemporal block bootstrapping method that can be applied to analyze spatiotemporally dependent infestations. We also identify the relevant risk determinants and evaluate their impacts on the frequency of SPB outbreaks. For example, we find forest type, climate, and natural disasters like storm and forest management are all significantly associated with SPB risks. Using the results of a statistical model, we design a county‐level group index insurance plan that generates estimates of actuarially fair premium rates for timber stands containing southern pine species. Given that no government‐provided compensation scheme for SPB epidemics currently exists, application of this new insurance product could reduce forest owners losses. Our study offers an approach to analyzing and protecting against risks of other destructive pests affecting the timber sector.

中文翻译：

---

如何抗击南方松树甲虫流行：一种保险方法

南部松甲虫（SPB）是杀死美国东部南部松树物种的主要生物制剂之一。根据公认的SPB爆发时空自相关性，我们设计了一种时空块自举方法，可用于分析时空相关的侵扰。我们还确定了相关的风险决定因素，并评估了它们对SPB爆发频率的影响。例如，我们发现森林类型，气候以及自然灾害（如风暴和森林管理）都与SPB风险显着相关。使用统计模型的结果，我们设计了一个县级团体指数保险计划，该计划可生成包含南方松树物种的林分的精算公允溢价率估算值。鉴于目前尚无政府提供的针对SPB流行病的补偿计划，因此，使用这种新的保险产品可以减少森林所有者的损失。我们的研究提供了一种分析和防范影响木材部门的其他破坏性虫害风险的方法。