The impact of local climate conditions on air temperatures during a hot summer period over the United Kingdom in 2018 is studied using simple sensitivity experiments with a state‐of‐the‐art regional numerical weather prediction system. The experiments are designed to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) and soil moisture on the air temperatures over land. They involved applying changes to the analysed SST and soil moisture patterns with magnitudes consistent with the differences between forecast analysis and climatology. The results from daily 5‐day forecasts over an 11‐day period show that a 3°C reduction in SSTs reduces the simulated air temperatures averaged over all land points by just over 1°C. Moistening the soil while using the control SSTs reduces the temperatures by a little less than 1°C on average although this can be larger than 3°C locally. While the reduction in SST impacts the daily maximum and minimum temperatures to a similar extent, the increase in soil moisture had little impact on the daily minimum temperatures.

中文翻译：

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2018年英国夏季热浪对当地海水温度和土壤湿度的敏感性

使用简单的敏感性实验和最先进的区域数值天气预报系统，研究了英国2018年炎热夏季当地气候条件对气温的影响。设计这些实验是为了调查海面温度（SST）和土壤湿度对陆地上气温的影响。他们涉及对分析的海表温度和土壤湿度模式进行更改，其幅度与预测分析和气候学之间的差异一致。过去11天的5天每日预报结果表明，SST降低3°C会使所有陆点平均模拟空气温度降低1°C以上。使用对照SST润湿土壤时，平均温度会降低一点点，低于1°C，尽管局部温度可能会高于3°C。虽然SST的降低会在相似程度上影响每日最高和最低温度，但土壤湿度的增加对每日最低温度的影响很小。