abstract Offshore wind energy has the potential to ease energy and environmental crises, improve people’s living standards on remote islands, and, finally, make contributions to sustainable development. Accurate energy evaluations should be performed before the exploitation of offshore wind energy; this includes not only assessments of the resource’s historical characteristics but also a focused effort on understanding future issues. Using simulated wind data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper compares and analyses wind energy characteristics globally for the 2080–2099 period (future) relative to the 1980–1999 period (past). The classification of both past and future wind energy is also presented. The results show a positive trend for future global offshore wind energy. Compared with the past, the extent of areas with wind power density (WPD) greater than 400 W m−2 will expand. In the future, across most of the global oceans, the effective wind speed occurrence and the occurrence of a WPD higher than 200 W m−2 will be greater than that in the past, generally by 10%. The extents of the sub-rich, available, and poor regions will decrease, while the regions with a wind energy class of 7 will expand. The future wind energies of the North and South Poles show a “seesaw” phenomenon.

中文翻译：

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使用 CMIP 数据预测未来全球海上风能资源

摘要 海上风能具有缓解能源和环境危机、提高偏远岛屿人民生活水平、最终为可持续发展做出贡献的潜力。海上风能开发利用前应进行准确的能源评估；这不仅包括对资源历史特征的评估，还包括对理解未来问题的集中努力。本文使用耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 的模拟风数据，比较和分析了 2080 年至 2099 年期间（未来）与 1980 年至 1999 年期间（过去）的全球风能特征。还介绍了过去和未来风能的分类。结果表明，未来全球海上风能将呈现积极趋势。与过去相比，风功率密度（WPD）大于 400 W m-2 的区域范围将扩大。未来，在全球大部分海洋中，有效风速发生率和WPD高于200 W m-2的发生率将比过去更大，一般增加10%。次富区、可用区和贫困区的范围将缩小，而风能等级为 7 级的区域将扩大。未来北极和南极的风能呈现“跷跷板”现象。而风能等级为7级的地区将扩大。未来北极和南极的风能呈现“跷跷板”现象。而风能等级为7级的地区将扩大。未来北极和南极的风能呈现“跷跷板”现象。