ABSTRACT A detailed analysis is performed on an inland-penetrating atmospheric river (AR) driven by and coupled to a Colorado cyclone in the first week of February 2016. This winter weather system was initiated by a trough of low pressure moving across the Rocky Mountains from the California coast. The low-level jet ahead of the trough was capable of extracting water vapour from the Gulf of Mexico to feed a cyclone on the lee side of the Rocky Mountaains, and the jet stream eventually transformed into a powerful AR. The warm, moist flow from the south produced a narrow band of heavy precipitation along the major axis of the AR across the central and eastern United States and generated significant freezing rain in parts of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada as the AR flowed over the warm front. It is suggested that, in an operational weather forecasting and warning environment, ARs can be easily identified by using the vertically integrated horizontal water vapour transport, and the major AR contribution to heavy precipitation can be estimated from the horizontal moisture convergence. It is demonstrated that the AR analysis in this case can assist operational meteorologists in understanding and conceptualizing winter storm development and the associated high-impact weather pattern. The operational predictability of this winter storm and its possible teleconnection with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) are also investigated. Our lagged composite analysis reveals that a statistically significant increase in water vapour transport from the Gulf of Mexico over the North American continent could occur about 10–20 days after the MJO-related convection anomaly reaches the tropical Indian Ocean.

中文翻译：

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热带-中纬度相互作用：北美冬季主要风暴期间穿透内陆大气河流的案例研究

摘要 对 2016 年 2 月第一周由科罗拉多气旋驱动并耦合到内陆的大气河流 (AR) 进行了详细分析。这个冬季天气系统是由穿过落基山脉的低压槽引发的。加利福尼亚海岸。低压槽前的低空急流能够从墨西哥湾提取水蒸气，供给落基山脉背风侧的气旋，急流最终转化为强大的 AR。来自南方的温暖潮湿的气流沿着 AR 的主轴产生了一条狭窄的强降水带，横跨美国中部和东部，并在 AR 流过美国东北部和加拿大东部的部分地区时产生了大量冻雨。温暖的前线。建议，在业务天气预报和预警环境中，可以使用垂直整合的水平水汽输送轻松识别 AR，并且可以从水平水分辐合估计 AR 对强降水的主要贡献。事实证明，这种情况下的 AR 分析可以帮助业务气象学家理解和概念化冬季风暴的发展和相关的高影响天气模式。还研究了这次冬季风暴的操作可预测性及其与麦登-朱利安振荡 (MJO) 的可能遥相关。