ABSTRACT Non-tariff measures (NTMs) such as technical barriers to trade (TBT) and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPMs) have become new trade barriers, which is contrary to these measures’ original intention to correct market failure and adverse selection of free markets and to protect the people, animals, plants and the environment in importing countries. For different African agri-food exporters, the compliance with NTMs has varied impacts. For relatively comprehensive exporters, NTMs are helpful in upgrading their food production, increasing agricultural input and promoting sustainable development. For countries with relatively less diversified crops, however, such compliance has huge negative effects such as rise in trading costs and reduction in exporting profits. In an attempt to address the above-mentioned issue using the VARMA(X) model and intervention analysis, this paper first examines agri-food trade records between African countries and analyses NTMs, which reveals the mechanisms of NTMs. Second, defining impacts of NTMs as the difference between the estimated agri-food trades’ volumes between African countries from 1996 to 2013 without NTMs and the actual volumes, the paper shows that NTMs have in fact led to a significant reduction in agri-food trade volume in Africa. Finally, based on these empirical econometrical results, the authors suggest possible solutions, including strengthening external assistance, improving trade liberalisation and accelerating economic integration.

中文翻译：

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量化非关税措施对非洲农产品出口商的影响

摘要 技术性贸易壁垒（TBT）、卫生与植物检疫措施（SPMs）等非关税措施（NTMs）已成为新的贸易壁垒，与这些措施旨在纠正市场失灵和自由市场逆向选择的初衷背道而驰。并保护进口国的人民、动物、植物和环境。对于不同的非洲农产品出口商，遵守非关税措施会产生不同的影响。对于综合性比较强的出口国而言，非关税措施有助于提升其粮食生产、增加农业投入和促进可持续发展。然而，对于农作物种类相对较少的国家来说，这种合规性会产生巨大的负面影响，例如贸易成本上升和出口利润减少。为了利用 VARMA(X) 模型和干预分析解决上述问题，本文首先检查了非洲国家之间的农产品贸易记录并分析了 NTM，揭示了 NTM 的机制。其次，将非关税措施的影响定义为 1996 年至 2013 年没有非关税措施的非洲国家之间估计的农产品贸易量与实际数量之间的差异，该论文表明，非关税措施实际上导致了农产品贸易的显着减少非洲的数量。最后，基于这些实证计量经济学结果，作者提出了可能的解决方案，包括加强外部援助、促进贸易自由化和加速经济一体化。这揭示了 NTM 的机制。其次，将非关税措施的影响定义为 1996 年至 2013 年没有非关税措施的非洲国家之间估计的农产品贸易量与实际数量之间的差异，该论文表明，非关税措施实际上导致了农产品贸易的显着减少非洲的数量。最后，基于这些实证计量经济学结果，作者提出了可能的解决方案，包括加强外部援助、促进贸易自由化和加速经济一体化。这揭示了 NTM 的机制。其次，将非关税措施的影响定义为 1996 年至 2013 年没有非关税措施的非洲国家之间估计的农产品贸易量与实际数量之间的差异，该论文表明，非关税措施实际上导致了农产品贸易的显着减少非洲的数量。最后，基于这些实证计量经济学结果，作者提出了可能的解决方案，包括加强外部援助、促进贸易自由化和加速经济一体化。