当前位置: X-MOL 学术Weather Clim. Extrem. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Analysis of climate extremes indices over northeast Brazil from 1961 to 2014
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100254
Rafaela Lisboa Costa , Gustavo Macedo de Mello Baptista , Heliofábio Barros Gomes , Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva , Rodrigo Lins da Rocha Júnior , Mozar de Araújo Salvador , Dirceu Luís Herdies

An analysis of climate extremes indices was conducted for maximum temperatures (TMax), minimum temperatures (TMin), and daily rainfall data (PRCP) over the northeast region of Brazil for the period of 1961–2014. The indices were calculated for 96 weather stations using RClimDex software in a sub-regional study based on cluster analysis, as well as for each individual weather station, after a rigorous process of quality control, gap filling of missing values, and homogenization. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test was employed to assess the statistical significance of the series. The results indicate unequivocal signs of heating. In the past decades, there were predominant trends of decrease in the percentage of cold nights (−8.4% days/decade), increase in the percentage of the number of warm nights (10.6% days/decade), increase in the number of days per decade in which the minimum temperature exceeded the threshold of 20 °C, and a trend showing an increase in heat waves. This was corroborated by the declining trend in the number of consecutive days in which TMin did not exceed the 10th percentile, and the increase in the number of consecutive days in which TMax exceeded the 90th percentile in the data distribution. With regard to PRCP, in most weather stations where there is a significant increase in consecutive dry days, there is also a trend of significant increase in consecutive wet days, thereby intensifying the seasonality, with the dry seasons becoming drier and the rainy seasons wetter. In most weather stations, a reduction was found in the total annual precipitation and in the frequency of rainy days. Moreover, in many stations, an increase in rainfall events that surpasses the threshold of 95% and 99% in the distribution was discovered. These factors highlight concerns of a region of Brazil marked by the scarcity of perennial water resources and the threat of desertification.



中文翻译:

1961年至2014年巴西东北部的极端气候指数分析

对巴西东北部地区1961-2014年期间的最高温度(TMax),最低温度(TMin)和每日降雨量数据(PRCP)进行了极端气候指数分析。经过严格的质量控制,缺失值的填补和均质化之后,使用RClimDex软件在基于聚类分析的次区域研究中为96个气象站以及每个单独的气象站计算了指数。使用Mann-Kendall非参数趋势检验来评估该系列的统计显着性。结果表明明显的加热迹象。在过去的几十年中,主要的趋势是冷夜百分比的减少(每十年减少−8.4%),暖夜百分比的增加(每十年减少10.6%天),最低温度超过20°C阈值的每十年的天数增加,并且趋势表明热浪增加。TMin不超过第10个百分位数的连续天数呈下降趋势,而数据分布中TMax超过第90个百分位数的连续天数增加,这证明了这一点。关于PRCP,在大多数气象站中,连续的干旱天数都有明显增加,而连续的干旱天数也有显着增加的趋势,从而加剧了季节性,旱季变得更干燥,雨季变得更湿。在大多数气象站,总的年降水量和雨天的频率都有所减少。而且,在很多车站 发现降雨事件的增加超过了分布的95%和99%的阈值。这些因素突出了巴西一个地区的关切,该地区的特点是常年水资源短缺和荒漠化的威胁。

更新日期:2020-03-16
down
wechat
bug