当前位置: X-MOL 学术Weather Clim. Extrem. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Local early warning systems for drought – Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100241
Lotta Andersson , Julie Wilk , L. Phil Graham , Jacob Wikner , Suzan Mokwatlo , Brilliant Petja

Limited application and use of forecast information restrict smallholder farmers’ ability to deal with drought in proactive ways. This paper explores the barriers that impede use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in two pilot communities in Limpopo Province. Current interpretation, translation and mediation of national SCF to the local context is weak. A local early warning system (EWS) was developed that incorporated hydrological modelled information based on national SCF, locally monitored rainfall and soil moisture by a wireless sensor network, and signs from indigenous climate indicators. We assessed to what degree this local EWS could improve interpretation of SCF and increase understanding and uptake by farmers. Local extension staff and champion farmers were found to play important knowledge brokering roles that could be strengthened to increase trust of SCF. The local EWS provided added value to national SCF by involving community members in local monitoring, enacting knowledge interplay with indigenous knowledge and simplifying and tailoring SCF and hydrological information to the local context. It also helped farmers mentally prepare for upcoming conditions even if many do not currently have the adaptive mindsets, economic resources or pre-conditions to positively respond to SCF information.



中文翻译:

当地的干旱预警系统–它们能否为全国传播的季节性气候预报增加价值?

预报信息的有限应用和使用限制了小农户积极应对干旱的能力。本文探讨了林波波省两个试点社区中阻碍使用和采用季节性气候预报(SCF)的障碍。目前,国家SCF对本地情况的解释,翻译和调解很薄弱。开发了一个本地预警系统(EWS),该系统结合了基于国家SCF的水文模型信息,通过无线传感器网络在本地监控的降雨量和土壤湿度以及本地气候指标的迹象。我们评估了当地的EWS在多大程度上可以改善对SCF的解释,并增加农民的了解和吸收。发现当地推广人员和冠军农民扮演着重要的知识中介角色,可以加强这些角色以增加SCF的信任度。当地的预警系统通过使社区成员参与地方监测,使知识与土著知识互动并简化和调整SCF和水文信息以适应当地情况,为国家SCF增值。它也帮助农民从心理上为即将发生的情况做好准备,即使许多人目前尚无适应性思维方式,经济资源或对SCF信息做出积极反应的前提条件。使知识与土著知识相互作用,并根据当地情况简化和调整SCF和水文信息。即使许多农民当前没有适应性思维,经济资源或前提条件,无法积极响应SCF信息,它也可以帮助农民在心理上为即将发生的情况做好准备。使知识与土著知识相互作用,并根据当地情况简化和调整SCF和水文信息。它也帮助农民从心理上为即将发生的情况做好准备,即使许多人目前尚无适应性思维方式,经济资源或对SCF信息做出积极反应的前提条件。

更新日期:2019-11-25
down
wechat
bug