Egypt, located in the Middle East and North Africa region, is considered to be a potential hot-spot of climate change where the warming and increase of the frequency of extreme temperatures could occur faster than at global scale. Precipitation is also expected to decrease in the region. In this work, our aim is to quantify the past and future temperature and precipitation trends at 8 locations selected for being representative of the variety of Egyptian climates. For the past period (1950–2017), we show that the decadal temperature trends derived from the analysis of the assimilated ERA-Interim (ERA-Int) and downscaled CORDEX (Historical and Evaluation) data are consistent. Relative to 1960, the daily maximal and minimal temperatures have increased by 1.3 ± 0.1 and 1.3 ± 0.3 °C, respectively, at the 8 selected locations. However, at the shorter yearly time scale, sub-regional differences of climate variability can be evidenced: this variability is less at the coastal and Nile Delta sites than at the drier inland locations. For the future, we use an ensemble of 6 CORDEX Africa models. Under the RCP45 scenario, the temperatures are predicted to increase at a rate ranging from 0.28 ± 0.04 °C/decade (Alexandria) to 0.38 ± 0.09 °C/decade (Hurghada and Aswan) between 2010 and 2040, and to abate afterwards (0.12 ± 0.08 °C/decade). Under the RCP85 scenario, the rates of temperature increase before 2040 are similar to those under RCP45 (from 0.24 ± 0.14 to 0.40 ± 0.12 °C/decade) but considerably larger afterwards (from 0.48 ± 0.18 °C to 0.72 ± 0.11 °C/decade between 2050 and 2100). As compared to the 2006–2015 reference period, the extreme temperatures analysis performed with the CLIMDEX software shows that the hot days and nights will become more frequent at all sites, but that the increase will occur at larger rates at the Red Sea (Hurghada) and upper Egypt (Aswan) sites than at the other ones. These inter-site differences are more pronounced with RCP45 than with RCP85. Considering the latter scenario, in the last decade of this century about 80% of the days in a year would be hotter than the 90th percentile of the 2006–2015 reference period. Regarding the annual precipitation, the analysis of ERA-Interim data of the 1980–2017 period does not reveal any significant trend, but in both RCP45 and RCP85 a significant decrease (from −0.48 to −0.9 mm/y, and from −0.95 to −1.40 mm/y, respectively) is predicted to occur from 2010 to 2100 in the north of Egypt where rain is currently the most abundant.

位于中东和北非地区的埃及被认为是潜在的气候变化热点，其极端温度升高和频率升高的速度可能比全球范围更快。预计该地区的降水也会减少。在这项工作中，我们的目标是量化8个地点的过去和将来的温度和降水趋势，这些地点被选为代表埃及气候的代表。在过去的一段时间（1950年至2017年）中，我们显示，从对同化ERA临时数据（ERA-Int）和按比例缩小的CORDEX（历史和评估）数据的分析得出的十年温度趋势是一致的。相对于1960年，在选定的8个地点，每日最高和最低温度分别升高了1.3±0.1和1.3±0.3°C。然而，在较短的年度时间尺度上，可以证明气候变异性的次区域差异：沿海和尼罗河三角洲地区的这种变异性要比内陆较干燥的地区少。对于未来，我们使用6种CORDEX非洲模型的集合。在RCP45情景下，预计2010年至2040年之间温度将以0.28±0.04°C /十年（亚历山大）至0.38±0.09°C /十年（洪加达和阿斯旺）的速率增加，此后将降低（0.12 ±0.08°C /十倍）。在RCP85情景下，2040年前的温度升高速率与RCP45之下的速率相似（从0.24±0.14到0.40±0.12°C /十年），但随后则更大（从0.48±0.18°C到0.72±0.11°C / 2050年至2100年之间的十年）。与2006-2015年参考期相比，使用CLIMDEX软件执行的极端温度分析表明，在所有站点上白天和夜晚的炎热天气都将变得更加频繁，但是在红海（Hurghada）和埃及上层（Aswan）站点上，这种情况的发生率将更大。其他的。与RCP85相比，RCP45的这些站点间差异更为明显。考虑到后一种情况，在本世纪的最后十年中，一年中约80％的日子会比2006-2015年参考期的90％百分数高。关于年降水量，对1980-2017年期间的ERA中期数据的分析没有发现任何显着趋势，但是RCP45和RCP85均显着下降（从-0.48到-0.9 mm / y，从-0.95到-1.40 mm / y，