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Characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought as a response to climate variability: The case of rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100237
Birhane Gebrehiwot Tesfamariam , Berhan Gessesse , Farid Melgani

Climate variability and recurrent meteorological droughts frequently affect the rain-dependent Ethiopian agriculture, where the rift valley lakes basin is one of the most drought-prone regions in the country. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. To this end, coefficient of variation (CV) and standardized rainfall anomaly (SRA) were used to evaluate rainfall variability; Mann-Kendell test was used to examine trends of temperature and rainfall; and a grid-rainfall based standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution and severity of meteorological droughts. The SPI was computed for 37 years over 1981–2017 at 3-month and 4-month timescales for the bimodal rainy seasons. Finally, a higher inter-annual and spatial variability of rainfall and frequent meteorological droughts were found across the basin. Compared to the nationally documented historical drought years in the country, more frequent drought events were found in this basin, signifying its higher vulnerability to climate variability. As a result, between 1981 and 2017, the basin has partially experienced at least a moderate drought intensity on average every 1.68 and 1.76 years during the ‘Belg’ and ‘Kiremt’ season, respectively. Drought frequency was higher at the ‘Kolla’ AEZ, characterized by the highest CV of rainfall. Furthermore, these frequent droughts were accompanied by significant rising trends in monthly temperature. Such a warming trend, in this inherently warm area, coupled with expected global climate change scenarios could further aggravate drought conditions in the future. Moreover, the spatiotemporal distribution of drought events was found to be variable between and within AEZs in the basin so that more localized drought adaptation strategies could help to alleviate potential impacts. Thus, the drought history of each agroecological zone and the spatiotemporal distributions of recent droughts, this study has delivered, could enhance the awareness of concerned decision makers in tracing frequently affected locations, which could in turn enable them to design and implement improved water management techniques as a means of drought mitigation strategy.



中文翻译:

将气象干旱的时空分布特征描述为对气候变化的响应:以埃塞俄比亚的裂谷湖盆地为例

气候多变性和反复发生的气象干旱经常影响依赖降雨的埃塞俄比亚农业,该地区的裂谷湖盆地是该国最容易干旱的地区之一。这项研究的目的是评估裂谷湖盆地主要农业生态区(AEZ)的合并卫星雨量,以评估气候变化并表征气象干旱的时空分布。为此,使用变异系数(CV)和标准降雨异常(SRA)来评估降雨变异性。Mann-Kendell检验用于检验温度和降雨的趋势。基于栅格降雨的标准化降水指数(SPI)用于评估气象干旱的时空分布和严重程度。在双峰雨季的3个月和4个月时间尺度上,计算了1981-2017年间37年的SPI。最后,整个盆地发现降雨和频繁的气象干旱的年际和空间变异性更高。与该国的有记录的历史干旱年份相比,该盆地发现了更多的干旱事件,这表明该盆地更容易受到气候变化的影响。结果,在1981年至2017年之间,该流域在“干旱”期间平均每1.68年和1.76年至少经历了中等干旱强度。与该国的有记录的历史干旱年份相比,该盆地发现了更多的干旱事件,这表明该盆地更容易受到气候变化的影响。结果,在1981年至2017年之间,该流域在“干旱”期间平均每1.68年和1.76年至少经历了中等干旱强度。与该国的有记录的历史干旱年份相比,该盆地发现了更多的干旱事件,这表明该盆地更容易受到气候变化的影响。结果,在1981年至2017年之间,该流域在“干旱”期间平均每1.68年和1.76年至少经历了中等干旱强度。Belg'和' Kiremt'季节。'Kolla'的干旱频率较高AEZ,以最高CV降雨量为特征。此外,这些频繁的干旱伴随着每月温度的显着上升趋势。在这个本来温暖的地区,这种变暖趋势,再加上预期的全球气候变化情景,可能会在未来进一步加剧干旱状况。此外,发现干旱事件的时空分布在该盆地的专属经济区之间和内部是可变的,因此,更多的局部干旱适应策略可以帮助减轻潜在的影响。因此,这项研究表明,每个农业生态区的干旱历史以及近期干旱的时空分布,可以提高有关决策者在追踪受灾地区的认识,

更新日期:2019-11-15
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