Aquifer overdraft is a key public concern in arid and semiarid regions —where agriculture is responsible of most of the water extraction. To tackle this problem, policy interventions in those regions most frequently focus on investment in irrigation technologies. However, these investments are usually carried out without consideration of the effects on water extraction. Estimation of such effects tend to be expensive and time-consuming because they vary depending on technology- and location-specific conditions, and their interactions. Thus there is the demand for methodologies that can provide cheaper estimates, even if rough. This paper explores whether an expert elicitation can provide insights on the impacts that are reasonable to expect from specific efficient irrigation technologies. Our case study is the aquifer of Valle de Aguascalientes, Mexico —where extraction is more than 80% above of the natural recharge. We have learned that our experts in agronomy and hydrology do not expect that sprinkler or drip technologies will substantially reduce overdraft. These results are policy relevant because both types of technologies are at center of the strategies proposed by the policy makers aiming to solve aquifer overdraft in Aguascalientes.

含水层透支是干旱和半干旱地区的主要公共问题，在这些地区，农业是大部分水的提取来源。为了解决这个问题，这些地区的政策干预措施通常集中在对灌溉技术的投资上。然而，这些投资通常在不考虑对水提取的影响的情况下进行。估计这种影响往往是昂贵和费时的，因为它们会根据特定于技术和位置的条件及其相互作用而变化。因此，存在对即使是粗略估计也能够提供更廉价估计的方法的需求。本文探讨了专家的启发是否可以提供对特定高效灌溉技术合理预期影响的见解。我们的案例研究是Valle de Aguascalientes的含水层，墨西哥-那里的开采量超过自然补给量的80％以上。我们了解到，我们的农学和水文学专家并不认为洒水或滴灌技术会大大减少透支现象。这些结果与政策相关，因为这两种技术都是决策者提出的旨在解决阿瓜斯卡连特斯含水层透支的战略的核心。