Climate change poses significant challenges to distribution of plant species. Rhododendron arboreum is considered as a keystone species between subalpine and the alpine regions. In the present study, we predict its future distribution in the Indian part of Western Himalaya by employing two species distribution modelling techniques. We used five least correlated climate variables: mean diurnal temperature range, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest quarter and precipitation seasonality to predict the potential distribution of R. arboreum for the current condition. We subtracted the current distribution from projected maps of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios for the year 2070 to quantify the magnitude and direction of range shift of the species in the future environment. Rhododendron arboreum is predicted to shift its distribution towards higher elevations more prominently in case of RCP 6.0. The species is likely to be influenced by annual precipitation for its distribution during current to future climate change scenarios. The study predicts upslope movement of R. arboreum in response to climate change impacts, where topography could play a significant role. Prediction of distribution pattern of R. arboreum highlights the need to take up future works focussing on development of a robust approach towards integrating genomic, environmental, climate and conservation information for predictive modelling of R. arboreum in its home range in the entire Indian Himalayas.

中文翻译：

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喜马拉雅西部杜鹃花植物上坡运动的预测

气候变化对植物物种的分布提出了重大挑战。杜鹃花被认为是亚高山和高山地区之间的关键物种。在本研究中，我们通过采用两种物种分布建模技术来预测其在喜马拉雅山西印度部分的未来分布。我们使用了五个最不相关的气候变量：日平均温度范围，年平均温度，年降水量，最干燥的四分之一降水量和降水季节变化来预测红景天的潜在分布。针对当前条件。我们从2070年的代表性浓度通道（RCP）4.5和RCP 6.0方案的投影图中减去了当前分布，以量化该物种在未来环境中的范围变化的幅度和方向。预计在RCP 6.0的情况下，杜鹃花会更显着地向高海拔转移。在当前到未来的气候变化情景中，该物种可能会受到年降水量的影响。这项研究预测，响应气候变化的影响，红树菌的上坡运动将在地形起重要作用。红树菌分布格局的预测强调需要开展未来的工作，重点是开发一种强大的方法，以整合基因组，环境，气候和保护信息，从而在整个印度喜马拉雅山脉的家园范围内对R. arboreum进行预测建模。