Abstract Rapid post-earthquake damage assessment is critical to short-term earthquake crisis management. Reinforced concrete buildings may accumulate damage during an aftershock sequence, and short-term damage forecasts after the mainshock can aid in decision-making (in particular, on whether to allow immediate occupancy) before further damage actually occurs. This paper presents an operative damage forecasting and building tagging procedure for reinforced concrete buildings during synthetic aftershock sequences near Thessaloniki, Greece, for two hypothetical earthquake scenarios. The synthetic aftershock sequences are simulated, and the time-variant seismic vulnerability is modeled based on fragility curves for the damage state thresholds in terms of period elongation. Period elongation is chosen as a damage proxy because it is available for rapid damage assessment in buildings with permanent monitoring systems or for city-scale post-earthquake surveys. Time-variable damage state probabilities owing to aftershocks are estimated, and a building tagging scheme is proposed based on a traffic-light concept (red-orange-green) to assist in seismic crisis management during aftershock sequences.

中文翻译：

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基于周期伸长和业务地震预报的余震序列中钢筋混凝土建筑物的地震风险

摘要 快速的震后损失评估对于短期地震危机管理至关重要。钢筋混凝土建筑物可能会在余震序列中累积损坏，主震后的短期损坏预测有助于在进一步损坏实际发生之前做出决策（特别是是否允许立即入住）。本文介绍了在希腊塞萨洛尼基附近的合成余震序列期间，针对两个假设的地震场景，钢筋混凝土建筑物的可操作损坏预测和建筑物标记程序。模拟了合成余震序列，并基于周期延长方面的损伤状态阈值的脆性曲线对时变地震脆弱性进行了建模。选择周期延长作为损害代理是因为它可用于具有永久监测系统的建筑物的快速损害评估或城市规模的震后调查。估计由余震引起的随时间变化的损坏状态概率，并基于交通灯概念（红-橙-绿）提出了一种建筑物标记方案，以协助余震序列期间的地震危机管理。