Abstract The analysis, design, and development of planetary entry technologies rely heavily on computational modeling due to limited ground and flight test data, which simulate the extreme environments encountered by spacecraft during atmospheric entry. In general, these computational models possess uncertainties that may affect the prediction accuracy of the simulations. This makes uncertainty quantification a necessary tool for assessing the accuracy of model predictions and improving the robustness and reliability of entry systems. The objectives of this paper are twofold: to review uncertainty quantification studies applied to the modeling and simulation of planetary entry systems and to demonstrate an efficient uncertainty quantification approach based on stochastic expansions on the multidisciplinary analysis of a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator configuration for Mars entry. The review of uncertainty quantification studies focuses on flight mechanics, guidance and navigation simulations, aerothermal modeling and prediction, fluid-structure interaction simulations, and thermal protection system response modeling of planetary entry technologies.

中文翻译：

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行星进入技术的不确定性量化

摘要 由于地面和飞行测试数据有限，行星进入技术的分析、设计和开发在很大程度上依赖于计算模型，模拟航天器在大气进入过程中遇到的极端环境。一般来说，这些计算模型具有可能影响模拟预测精度的不确定性。这使得不确定性量化成为评估模型预测准确性和提高输入系统鲁棒性和可靠性的必要工具。本文的目标有两个：审查应用于行星进入系统建模和模拟的不确定性量化研究，并展示基于随机扩展的有效不确定性量化方法，对用于火星进入的高超音速充气气动减速器配置进行多学科分析。不确定性量化研究的审查重点是飞行力学、制导和导航模拟、气动热建模和预测、流固耦合模拟以及行星进入技术的热保护系统响应建模。