In northern Iran’s Haraz River basin between 1975 and 2010, hydrological sensitivity, double mass curve, and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) methods were applied to monitoring and analysing changes in stream flow brought on by climatic variability and human activities. Applied to analyse trends in annual and seasonal runoff over this period, the sequential MK test showed a sudden change point in stream flow in 1994. The study period was, therefore, divided into two sub-periods: 1975–1994 and 1995–2010. The SWAT model showed obvious changes in water resource components between the two periods: in comparison to the period of 1975–1994, sub-watershed-scale stream flow and soil moisture decreased during 1995–2010. Changes in evapotranspiration were negligible compared to those in stream flow and soil moisture. The hydrological sensitivity method indicated that climatic variability and human activities contributed to 29.86% and 70.14%, respectively, of changes in annual stream flow, while the SWAT model placed these contributions at 34.78% and 65.21%, respectively. The double mass curve method indicated the contribution of climatic variability to stream flow changes to be 57.5% for the wet season and 22.87% for the dry season, while human activities contributed 42.5% and 77.13%, respectively. Accordingly, in the face of climatic variability, measures should be developed and implemented to mitigate its impacts and maintain eco-environmental integrity and water supplies.

在1975年至2010年之间的伊朗北部哈拉兹河流域，水文敏感性，双质量曲线和土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）方法被用于监测和分析气候变化和人类活动带来的水流变化。连续的MK试验用于分析该时期的年度和季节径流量趋势，它显示了1994年河流流量的突然变化点。因此，研究期分为两个子时期：1975-1994年和1995-2010年。SWAT模型显示了两个时期之间水资源组成的明显变化：与1975-1994年相比，1995-2010年期间，小流域尺度的水流和土壤水分减少了。与水流和土壤湿度相比，蒸散量的变化可以忽略不计。水文敏感性方法表明，气候变化和人类活动分别贡献了年流量的29.86％和70.14％，而SWAT模型则分别将这些贡献分别为34.78％和65.21％。双重质量曲线法表明，气候变化对水流变化的贡献在雨季为57.5％，在旱季为22.87％，而人类活动分别贡献了42.5％和77.13％。因此，面对气候变化，应制定和实施措施以减轻其影响并维持生态环境的完整性和供水。而SWAT模型则将这些贡献分别设为34.78％和65.21％。双重质量曲线法表明，气候变化对水流变化的贡献在雨季为57.5％，在旱季为22.87％，而人类活动分别贡献了42.5％和77.13％。因此，面对气候变化，应制定和实施措施以减轻其影响并维持生态环境的完整性和供水。而SWAT模型将这些贡献分别设为34.78％和65.21％。双重质量曲线法表明，气候变化对水流变化的贡献在雨季为57.5％，在旱季为22.87％，而人类活动分别贡献了42.5％和77.13％。因此，面对气候变化，应制定和实施措施以减轻其影响并维持生态环境的完整性和供水。