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Active future rule curves for multi-purpose reservoir operation on the impact of climate and land use changes
Journal of Hydro-environment Research ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2019-03-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jher.2019.03.001
Anongrit Kangrang , Haris Prasanchum , Rattana Hormwichian

Future optimal rule curves are required for operating reservoir under uncertainty situation. This study applied the genetic algorithm (GA) connected a reservoir simulation model with smoothing function and adjusting of expert participation to search for future optimal reservoir rule curves for the Ubolrat Reservoir, which is located in the Northeast of Thailand, in period 2015–2064. The future optimal rule curves considered the impact of climate change with the PRECIS model under two emission scenarios, A2 and B2, and future land use maps using the CA Markov model. The future streamflow into the reservoir was determined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results showed that the average future streamflow for the A2 and B2 were increased in comparison to the baseline year (1997–2014) due to the increase of average rainfall and temperatures, including widest land use change from rice and forest area to the sugarcane. The smoothing function applied to be the constraint can reduce the fluctuation of the upper and lower obtained rule curves from the GA. Further, the future rule curves can mitigate the frequency of water shortage situations and the releases of excess water during the increasing streamflow impacted by both climate scenarios and land use changes situation more than the existing and historic rule curves. Moreover, adjusted future rule curves with the expert participation were acceptable to operate the reservoir.



中文翻译:

多功能水库运营对气候和土地利用变化的影响的活跃未来规则曲线

在不确定情况下运行油藏需要未来的最佳规则曲线。这项研究应用遗传算法(GA)将具有平滑功能并调整专家参与度的储层模拟模型相结合,以寻找位于泰国东北部的Ubolrat水库在2015–2064年期间的未来最佳储层规则曲线。未来的最佳规则曲线考虑了PRECIS模型在两种排放情景A2和B2下的气候变化影响,以及使用CA Markov模型的未来土地利用图。使用土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)模型确定了流入水库的未来流量。结果表明,由于平均降雨量和温度的增加,包括从水稻和森林地区到甘蔗的最大土地利用变化,A2和B2的平均未来流量比基准年(1997-2014)有所增加。用作约束的平滑函数可以减少从GA获得的上下规则曲线的波动。此外,与现有的和历史的规则曲线相比,未来的规则曲线可以减轻因气候情景和土地利用变化状况而造成的水流短缺情况和过剩水流增加期间的过量水释放。此外,在专家参与下调整后的未来规则曲线对于运行水库是可以接受的。包括从水稻和林区到甘蔗的最广泛的土地利用变化。用作约束的平滑函数可以减少从GA获得的上下规则曲线的波动。此外,与现有的和历史的规则曲线相比,未来的规则曲线可以减轻因气候情景和土地利用变化状况而造成的水流短缺情况和过剩水流增加期间的过量水释放。此外,在专家参与下调整后的未来规则曲线对于运行水库是可以接受的。包括从水稻和林区到甘蔗的最广泛的土地利用变化。用作约束的平滑函数可以减少从GA获得的上下规则曲线的波动。此外,与现有的和历史的规则曲线相比,未来的规则曲线可以减轻因气候情景和土地利用变化状况而造成的水流短缺情况和过剩水流增加期间的过量水释放。而且,在专家的参与下,调整后的未来规则曲线可以操作水库。与现有的和历史的规则曲线相比,未来的规则曲线可以在气候情景和土地利用变化情况的影响下,缓解水资源短缺状况和水流量增加期间的过量水释放。此外,在专家参与下调整后的未来规则曲线对于运行水库是可以接受的。与现有的和历史的规则曲线相比,未来的规则曲线可以在气候情景和土地利用变化情况的影响下,缓解水资源短缺状况和水流量增加期间的过量水释放。此外,在专家参与下调整后的未来规则曲线对于运行水库是可以接受的。

更新日期:2019-03-13
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