Abstract In the paper entitled “Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes – Powerful tools for an early warning system”, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) claim that they found radiation and GPS signal anomalies before the April 16th 2016 Pedernales earthquake (Ecuador) and that their findings can be used to forecast earthquakes in the medium and short term in active continental margins. Using an extended data set that overlaps Toulkeridis et al. (2019) study period, we find: (1) the success rate of predicting earthquakes using radiation anomalies is 2.5 %; (2) radiation anomalies, including the one recorded during the hours before the M 7.8 earthquake, temporally correlate with local rainfall; (3) Toulkeridis et al. (2019) GPS results are physically unrealistic and inconsistent with previously published GPS and InSAR analysis; (4) there is no anomaly in the GPS time series before the earthquake. Therefore, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) results are not reliable evidence of precursors to the M 7.8 earthquake in 2016 in Ecuador, and their proposed method cannot be used to forecast earthquakes.

中文翻译：

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对 Toulkeridis 等人的论文“基于放射性和大地测量过程的厄瓜多尔 7.8 M 地震的两个独立实时前兆——早期预警系统的强大工具”的评论。(2019)

摘要 在题为“基于放射性和大地测量过程的厄瓜多尔 7.8 M 地震的两个独立实时前兆——早期预警系统的强大工具”的论文中，Toulkeridis 等人。(2019) 声称他们在 2016 年 4 月 16 日佩德纳莱斯地震（厄瓜多尔）之前发现了辐射和 GPS 信号异常，并且他们的发现可用于预测活动大陆边缘的中短期地震。使用与 Toulkeridis 等人重叠的扩展数据集。（2019）研究期间，我们发现：（1）利用辐射异常预测地震的成功率为2.5%；(2) 辐射异常，包括 M 7.8 地震前几小时记录的辐射异常，在时间上与当地降雨量相关；(3) Toulkeridis 等人。(2019) GPS 结果在物理上不切实际，并且与之前发布的 GPS 和 InSAR 分析不一致；(4)地震前GPS时间序列无异常。因此，Toulkeridis 等人。(2019) 结果不是 2016 年厄瓜多尔 M 7.8 地震前兆的可靠证据，他们提出的方法不能用于预测地震。