The likely effects of climate change on geographic distributions of African medicinal plants have not seen detailed analysis. We investigated likely effects of future climate change processes on suitable geographic areas for an important medicinal plant resource, Alstonia boonei De Wild. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of the species by means of ecological niche models based on primary biodiversity data and interpolated climate data from the WorldClim archive. Results indicated that suitability for the species was lower at the northern and southern extremes of the species’ known geographic distribution, whereas broader areas in the eastern half of the species’ distribution were identified as suitable. Future potential geographic distributions were similar to present-day distributional patterns, with modest increases in suitability, which translated into only subtle likely range shifts, with slight expansions of suitability for the species in all directions. As such, in the face of changing climate, the geographic distribution of Alstonia boonei is likely to remain largely stable under present and future climates. This study serves as an example of how ecological niche modeling can be used to evaluate probable effects of future climate change on invaluable natural medicinal resources, implications for healthcare, livelihoods, and conservation practice.

气候变化对非洲药用植物地理分布的可能影响尚未见详细分析。我们调查了未来气候变化过程对重要的药用植物资源阿尔斯通（Alstonia boonei）的合适地理区域的可能影响德野。我们根据生态多样性模型，根据主要生物多样性数据和来自WorldClim档案库的内插气候数据，对物种的潜在地理分布进行了描述。结果表明，该物种的适宜性在该物种已知地理分布的北部和南部极端地区较低，而在该物种分布的东部一半的较广区域则被确定为合适。未来的潜在地理分布与当今的分布模式相似，适应性适度增加，这仅转化为细微的可能范围变化，各个方向的适应性略有扩展。因此，面对气候变化，Alstonia boonei的地理分布在当前和未来的气候下，很可能会保持稳定。这项研究提供了一个示例，说明如何利用生态位模型来评估未来气候变化对宝贵的自然药用资源的可能影响，对医疗保健，生计和保护实践的影响。